Germany’s SPD party slumps to historical low in election poll

Just seven percentage points separate Germany’s oldest political party from its newest, with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) slumping to historical lows of just 21 per cent in a closely-watched public television poll.

Three state poll wins for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in March, meanwhile, has given Germany’s new populist party a noticeable national bounce – up three points to 14 per cent in ARD’s Deutschlandtrend survey.

Just two years after starting life as a bailout critical party, the AfD's migration critical line has helped it overtake the Greens and the Linke to become Germany's third-largest political party.

The AfD’s rapid rise only compounds the misery of the SPD’s long-running slump – and its lowest level of support in opinion poll history.

Some 11 years after the Social Democrats pushed through economic and social reforms many credit with turning around the German economy, traditional left-wing SPD voters continue to abandon the party. And, as junior partner in Berlin's grand coalition, the party is feeling the squeeze under Chancellor Angela Merkel and her increasingly centrist Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

The poll showing is a double humiliation for SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel. As well as ebbing party support, just 39 per cent of respondents approve of his work as party leader and vice-chancellor. Despite the downward spiral, though, he is unlikely to face calls to resign. So many senior party figures are now resigned to losing the 2017 general election that they insist Mr Gabriel must stay on to lead a losing, kamikaze campaign.

After months under pressure on the migration crisis, the poll suggested Dr Merkel is out of the woods and clawing back support, with her popularity rising to 56 per cent.

But that rise in personal popularity has not been transferred to her CDU, down two points to 34 per cent. Political analysts attributed the losses to Germany's ruling parties to voter frustration with ongoing disagreements and spats over migration policy in Berlin - and with Dr Merkel's CSU Bavarian allies.

"The voters are punishing the ruling parties because the coalition is a constant dispute," said Dr Gero Neugebauer, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University. (FU). "The public perception of the coalition is really bad, many doubt have doubts that the EU/Turkey agreement has the potential to solve the refugee crisis."

Halfway through Germany's political term, Friday's ARD poll suggested that forming the next government will be a tricky business thanks to a record six parties likely to enter the next Bundestag. Support for the Greens is at 13 per cent, the Linke are on 7 per cent while a resurgent Free Democrats (FDP) is also at 7 per cent, after being ejected in 2013.