Germany’s CDU begins rethink after regional election disasters

Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Armin Laschet learned a painful political lesson on Monday: in a busy election year, 50 days is the new 100 days’ grace period.

At a closed-door meeting of his centre-right CDU front bench, the party leader elected last January called two regional election defeats on Sunday a “wake-up call” ahead of September’s federal election.

Voters in two southwestern “hyphen” states – Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate – handed his party historic low results, backing instead Green and Social Democratic (SPD) incumbent minister presidents.

The shockwaves were still palpable on Monday morning in Berlin. After the party’s four terms in office under chancellor Angela Merkel, Laschet is hoping he can secure the party nomination to run as her successor and inherit the keys to the chancellery. But Laschet admitted this was “not a God-given right” after Sunday, given voter frustration over how Germany’s state and federal leaders have fumbled its pandemic measures and vaccine rollout.

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“We must improve here,” said Laschet to reporters after the meeting.

A new survey on Monday afternoon showed the CDU slipping below 30 per cent in opinion polls again. By comparison, a year ago, Merkel’s steady handling of the first wave saw the party soar near 40 per cent.

Berlin speculation

The new poll, and Sunday’s regional results, have reinvigorated speculation in Berlin of a new federal government without the CDU. One option would see the Greens and SPD team up with the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), another sees them with the hard left Linke.

Joining the speculation was Bavarian state premier Markus Söder, head of the CDU’s local sister party, the CSU. He said time was running out for his centre-right alliance to prove they could “govern well and reliably” before voters make their own decision in September.

“One thing is clear since yesterday evening: theoretically, there are majorities beyond the CDU/CSU,” said Söder. “We need a clear direction, a clear strategy.”

Above all, the CDU/CSU needs a campaign leader, something Söder and Laschet have promised to agree with themselves shortly after Easter.

Political analysts agree that the departure of Merkel after four terms adds a wild card to the election.

“This time the CDU is running without the incumbent bonus,” said Prof Uwe Jun, a political scientist. “For that reason it could be beneficial to clarify as soon as possible the chancellor candidate question.”

Voter analyses attributed the dip in CDU support to pandemic insecurity: frustration over repeated failure to deliver on promises – for mass distribution of protective masks and tests – and a bureaucratic vaccine rollout that has left Germany in the international mid-field.

Graft allegations

Darkening the mood still further are ongoing graft allegations involving CDU/CSU MPs.

Three parliamentarians from its centre-right bloc are under investigation for allegedly accepting kickbacks from companies in exchange for securing them public contracts for protective masks.

Others face claims they accepted bribes from Azerbaijan to push its interests in the Bundestag and the Council of Europe, Europe’s largest human rights body.

Rattled by the revelations, CDU leaders have moved quickly to impose a new code of conduct on its MPs – after 15 years of blocking such transparency rules in Berlin.

There was no shortage of advice for Laschet on Monday, with many calling on him to “free himself” from Merkel.

Such a manoeuvre is tricky as Laschet sold himself to party delegates as a continuity figure and, as state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, shares responsibility with Merkel for Germany’s pandemic response.

After nearly 16 years of Merkel-led grand coalitions in Berlin, Sunday’s results have put wind in the sails of CDU rival parties.

After securing a third of the vote and a third term in Baden-Württemberg, jubilant Green Party co-leader Robert Habeck called the result “a great sign that people are willing to give us responsibility and mandates” – even in a time of crisis.

He insisted it was “absurdly too early” to talk about possible coalitions – as the SPD did just that on Monday. It has framed its Sunday election win in Rhineland-Palatinate as its passport to a post-CDU coalition in Berlin.