Europe Letter: Danish vote on EU has implications for all members

While the EU awaits a date for the United Kingdoms’s much-anticipated vote on membership, a referendum is taking place today that could serve as a barometer for public sentiment on the union.

In Denmark, voters will decide if the country should opt in to a number of EU justice and home affairs laws. It's the fifth referendum on EU matters since the country joined in 1973 and the first since Denmark voted against joining the euro 15 years ago.

Like the UK, Denmark has an ambivalent relationship with the EU. Following rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, the country secured an opt-out from four key policy areas: monetary union, the Common Security and Defence Policy, justice and home affairs and EU citizenship (the latter was extended to all in the Amsterdam Treaty).

Today's referendum will decide whether one of the four opt-outs – justice and home affairs – should become an opt-in, bringing Denmark more in line with Britain and Ireland, which already have opt-ins to such legislation.

Crime and policing

Under the proposal, Denmark would opt in to 22 EU laws in the sphere of justice and home affairs, with the option of participating in others on a case-by-case basis.

The latest polls show the No side slightly ahead, but with the number of undecided voters estimated to be as high as 30 per cent, the outcome of the vote is uncertain.

Much of the debate has focused on the issue of crime and policing. The Yes side has focused on the country's continued participation in Europol, the EU's joint law enforcement agency, while also arguing that problems may arise with the European arrest warrant. While Denmark currently participates in Europol through an intergovernmental arrangement, changes to EU legislation following the Lisbon Treaty means Denmark would no longer be party to the agency.

The government – which is supported by the country’s five pro-EU parties – has argued that it would be difficult to renegotiate a bilateral agreement with Europol.

Those on the No side have argued that a Yes vote could lead to Denmark rescinding control of its asylum and immigration policy. Technically, if the referendum is passed, the parliament could decide by a simple majority on whether the country could opt in to the remaining EU justice and home affairs legislation, including asylum policy. To assuage concerns, the government has said it will put any decision on participation in EU asylum policy to another referendum.

However, the refugee crisis has made the issue highly sensitive politically. With Denmark bordering Sweden and Germany, the two member states accepting the highest proportion of refugees, there have been claims that Denmark would be forced into accepting refugee quotas.

Eurosceptic parties have also framed the referendum as a question of surrendering more control over national affairs to Brussels. “More EU? No thanks,” read the posters of the Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party (DPP), which topped the polls in European elections last year.

Social Democrat MEP Christel Schaldemose, who supports a Yes vote, says she is concerned about recent polls, fearing extraneous issues are clouding the debate. "It's one of those referendums where other issues come into play: lack of trust in the government, in the parliament, declining trust in the EU. As with previous referendums in countries like Ireland, these issues complicate the question."

Parallel agreement

She also rejects suggestions from the No side that Denmark could negotiate a parallel agreement to allow it to stay in Europol. “There is a tendency in the debate to believe it is easy to get another kind of solution. The EU is not interested in this. Most of the other member states believe that what’s on the table is the only option for Denmark.”

The outcome of today's referendum will be closely watched as a barometer of public feeling about the EU ahead of the British referendum. A No vote could send jitters across Europe, in an indication of how easily a referendum on EU matters can be lost. A Yes vote could be seen as an example of how a country can negotiate its own tailormade relationship with the EU.

The Danish model is seen as a possible template for how Britain might renegotiate its relationship with the EU. Denmark’s success in attaining four opt-outs following the Maastricht Treaty, which were then folded in to later treaties, offers hope to Britain as it begins the complicated task of renegotiation.

Though a different case than that of Britain, the Danish model is proof that the EU can display flexibility when it needs to.