Eastern German population exodus continues unabated

Three decades after Germany’s unity chancellor Helmut Kohl promised easterners “blossoming landscapes”, a new study suggests another adjective is more appropriate: empty.

In population terms at least, the Ifo economic institute warns that the old West and East Germany are “drifting apart, almost unchecked”. The number of people living in eastern Germany has dropped back to levels not seen since 1905, while Germany’s western half has never been so full.

“Right up until today the ongoing impact of German unification has been completely underestimated,” said Dr Felix Rösel, author of the study.

The physical scars left by four decades of German socialism have taken three decades to reverse, he suggests, “giving eastern German cities their sheen back”.

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“The one thing they are lacking,” Dr Rösel adds, “is residents”.

Today some 13.6 million people live on the former territory of the vanished German Democratic Republic (GDR), a low last seen 114 years ago. Back then western Germany had 32.6 million people but, by the end of 2019, is forecast to have 68.3 million.

The study shows how, until the 1930s Nazi era, there was no noticeable difference in east-west population growth. The greatest depopulation phase began with post-war German division in 1949 and the mass exodus from the GDR, halted by the building of the Berlin Wall and inner-German border in August 1961.

Had German division not happened, and eastern regions developed in step with their western counterparts, the study suggests that cities such as Dresden and Leipzig would today have twice their current population of 550,000 each.

Instead, after a 28-year pause thanks to the armed inner-German border, the process of east-to-west migration halted in 1961 began again with German unification.

While one in five of Germany’s 82.8 million people live in the former east, the total population has dropped by up to three million in the last 30 years. The most common reasons for leaving are structural: mass unemployment and a dearth of prospects at home. As a result, western Germany has seen the arrival of two waves of young, qualified workers: after 1949 and again after 1990. Eastern Germany, already older, is getting older and emptier as a result.

What of the ‘solidarity’ levy?

Despite huge progress in rebuilding eastern infrastructure, attracting employers to the region remains an ongoing political challenge.

These deep-rooted structural challenges will dominate elections in three eastern federal states in the autumn: Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. In the first two states, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is topping opinion polls.

A rout for Germany’s established parties could dampen their celebrations ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall on November 9th, 1989. Politicians are debating whether to scrap the “solidarity” income levy introduced to finance eastern reconstruction. Meanwhile, western German regions are demanding an end to prioritisation of eastern regions in favour of needs-based subsidies.

The Ifo study urges a careful rethink of eastern state development strategies that previously favoured urban areas. Continuing this policy, it adds, risks “hanging out to dry the very regions that in 1949, through no fault of their own, were affected by the sweep of history”.