Does Turkey look to EU for holidays or migration?

The European Union's ties to Turkey have come into sharp focus in recent weeks with renewed discussion over whether the terms of a deal to stop migrants from reaching Europe may in fact result in millions of Turks coming into the continent in the short term.

On top of that, right-wing tabloid newspapers caught up in the fervour of the Brexit debate suggest Turkey joining the Union would see 12 million Turks descend on the UK alone.

The actual chance of Turkey acceding to the EU, however, is slim: among a host of other reasons, France, Germany and other states don't want that to happen. In addition, Turkey must meet requirements of 33 of 35 EU chapters or policy fields, and since March new divisions have opened up.

But for Turks, only 10 per cent of whom have passports, these days Europe hardly represents their Eden. Although the idea of visiting the continent for tourism or to see relatives remains a long-standing wish of many, not everyone is keen on full membership. A May 2015 survey found 36 per cent of those polled thought Turkey would not benefit from joining the EU; 40 per cent believed it would be “bad” for Turkey.

The euro zone debt crisis and economic difficulties in Greece, Ireland and other countries since 2009 have painted a picture of fewer opportunities for migrants seeking work there.

This coupled, with the improving economic status being experienced by millions of Turks at home as a result of easier access to credit and strong demographics, has led to a waning in interest in full membership of the EU, whereas up to a decade ago closer ties to Europe were seen as crucial.

Waning appeal

“In the past, people wanted to go to Europe to work. Even though everything is becoming more expensive now, Turkish people can buy homes and find jobs easier than before, so they are less interested in going to Europe for work,” said Ercan Is, who runs an antiques shop in central Istanbul. He says the chef motivation to go to Europe now is tourism.

One person who has benefited from Turkey’s improving economy is Aysegul Ozduman, who, after being out of work for 18 months, recently found a job with an American multinational. “If Turkey joins the EU it would be good [for Turkey] because we will be able to enter European countries without having trouble on visa issues,” she said. If visa restrictions were eased, she said, she’d like to visit Sweden to hike. “But I think the EU really doesn’t want Turkey purely for religious reasons.”

There is also the question of how, and where, Turks see themselves. Under the AK Party government, Turkey’s Islamic heritage and role in the Middle East have been accentuated. But opposition to the increasingly autocratic government and wars in the Arab world may have dampened that aspect of identity. A survey of 1,000 people conducted by the Istanbul-based Kadir Has University this month found 32 per cent of Turks see their country as a European state, a rise of 6 per cent from last year.

Burak Bukukdemir, the founder of incubator and seed investor organisation Etohum, says that though Turkey has much entrepreneurial talent on offer, travel restrictions mean that neither Turks nor Europeans are benefiting from that potential.

“Ordinary people in Turkey have found it ever harder to travel easily inside the EU during the last years. The restrictions affect not only businessmen, families, students, and officials, but also entrepreneurship,” he said. “For real development, not just for Turkey but also for Europe, it is very important to remove the visa obstacles.”

A deal struck by Turkey and EU leaders in March that agreed to the return of migrants from Greece to Turkey in exchange for billions of euro of aid and 90-day visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to EU states has cut to the heart of the issue.

Terror definition

Part of the deal, however, calls for a narrowing of Turkey’s definition of terrorism that

Ankara

refuses to pursue.

Though Turkish authorities remain bullish on the need or desire to better relations with the EU, for some the desire to travel to more progressive countries remains appealing.

"Today, I see Turkey as more of a Muslim country than, for example, 15 years ago," said student Nayat Bag, who found in the past that being granted a 30-day visa to visit Italy involved a huge effort. "I would like to go to Europe primarily for tourism, but if the opportunity happened, maybe it would be good to live there."