There seems little doubt that a surface-to-air missile downed the Malaysia Airlines jet in Ukraine – two villagers have spoken of seeing the rocket's flare – and that it in all likelihood emanated from a Russian-made Buk rocket launcher in the hands of pro-Russian separatists. Beyond that, attribution of degrees of culpability for the deaths of the 298 becomes a murkier process, one an international inquiry may find hard to fathom.
Leaders of the rebels' self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic deny any part, and Russia vehemently denies either shooting the plane down or supplying the launcher to rebels. It points to the fact that the official Ukrainian army owns some of the same weapons. Rebel raids on official army bases have proved a valuable source of arms and in a recent unverifiable social media post Igor Strelkov, the shadowy pro-Russian rebel commander, claimed to have captured Buk missiles. Earlier this week, moreover, rebels are believed to have downed a Ukrainian AN-26 transport plane flying at a similar height, beyond the range of the shoulder-launched missiles that have brought down more than half a dozen government aircraft.
Ukrainian intelligence has also claimed that a fighter named Igor Bezler, the militia leader in the eastern town of Gorlovka, close to where the Malaysia Airlines plane came down, said in an intercepted phone call that his men had “shot down a plane” on Thursday and later that they had thought it was Ukrainian.
Yet, whether “accidental” , whether with a Russian-supplied missile, the circumstances of the downing of the jet are likely to deepen the polarisation in eastern Ukraine and the confrontation between western coutries, the EU, US and Russia. It comes in the immediate aftermath of a ratcheting up of US financial sanctions against Russia, precisely over its supply of weapons to the rebels, and will certainly raise pressure on the EU to follow suit.
The attack is a serious political embarassment to Vladimir Putin, not least because it makes clear how limited the direct operational sway the Russians actually have over their client rebel militias at a time when, reports suggest, he is beginning to show signs of pulling back from overt intervention and being reconciled to the idea of an internal settlement to the Ukrainian conflict. At a time when he wants to be able bring rebels to the table to talk to Kiev about issues like greater autonomy.
The UN Security Council’s call yesterday for a “full, thorough and independent international investigation” into the downing of the plane and for “appropriate accountability” is an important first step. It needs to be enabled by a ceasefire and the granting of unimpeded access for international observers to the crash site. And, to demonstate its good faith, by an immediate concerted Russian attempt to bring the rebels to the peace table.