Small parties inject colour as Australia goes to the polls

Labor looks unlikely to beat the ruling coalition in Saturday’s election

When Australia's longest election campaign in almost 50 years began in early May, the United Kingdom was on course to remain part of the European Union, England was expecting to do well at Euro 2016 and dinosaurs roamed the Earth (or so it seems).

If a week is a long time in politics, eight weeks is an eternity. At times it seemed the Liberal-National coalition government and Labor opposition were trying to bore their way to the finish line.

There were so many pictures of politicians in hi-vis vests and hard hats, it looked as if they were trying to do a live action Bob the Builder. Outgoing prime minister Malcolm Turnbull occasionally had some difficulty getting the hi-vis gear on, but Labor leader Bill Shorten, a former union leader, was a natural.

Turnbull, whose wealth is estimated at about AU$200 million (€134 million), says his government is a safe pair of hands to see the country through the expected post-Brexit troubled times.

READ MORE

“Australians want the government they elect to get on with the job of ensuring we have a strong economy,” he said on Thursday.

Shorten is pinning his hopes of an upset victory on Medicare, Australia's universal health system, which he says the coalition intends to privatise. The coalition will bring in "an Americanised healthcare system, where . . . how much you earn will determine the quality of your health care," he said.

By the time people in Ireland are thinking about a second cup of tea on Saturday, it will be all over bar the counting. Voting closes at 6pm (9am Irish time).

Exit polls

The count will immediately begin in the eastern states, where most of the population lives, and most seats will be decided before the final polls close two hours later in Western

Australia

. Barring a major surprise (of Brexit proportions) the coalition will have retained power, albeit with a smaller margin.

The exit polls, which will be released as soon as polling stations close in the east of the country, will probably reveal a swing of about 2.6 per cent to Labor, enough to win back some seats, but not near enough to win the 21 extra seats needed to take power.

The wild cards in the lower house are the minor parties and independents. The Greens could wins seats from Labor and the Liberals in Victoria and Queensland, while there are strong independent candidates in New South Wales. In South Australia, meanwhile, the Nick Xenophon Team could take seats from the coalition.

Xenophon himself is certain to retain his senate seat and will probably be joined there by Derryn Hinch, a controversial media personality who has been jailed twice for breaching court suppression orders. The first conviction concerned a paedophile Catholic priest, while the second was for revealing the criminal history of Adrian Bayley, who murdered Irish woman Jill Meagher in Melbourne in September 2012.

Anti-immigration party

Pauline Hanson

, leader of the far right, anti-immigration One Nation party is also likely to win a senate seat. She was previously elected to the lower house of parliament in 1996, but was defeated in the following election. She has run in several state and federal elections since her first brush with power, but has lost every time.

The reason she has a good chance of being elected this time is because it is a double dissolution election, meaning every state will elect 12 senators, rather than the six returned in a normal half-senate election.

With the quota needed to win a senate seat halved, the next parliament will feature some strange bedfellows.

Voting is compulsory in Australia, but young people will not be fully represented as only 86.7 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 are enrolled. The missing 13.3 per cent amounts to 254,432 lost votes.

There is also a very high incidence of spoilt votes, known as informal votes in Australia. In the 2013 federal election, 5.9 per cent of votes were informal, with the figure expected to be higher this time.

The old joke about voting early and voting often is half true in Australia. Between postal votes and three weeks of pre-polling, up to 40 per cent of people will be able to enjoy their Saturday as normal, unencumbered by having to go and vote.