Poll shows Indian opposition winning ground in key northern states

Opposition leader Narendra Modi’s chances of becoming India’s next prime minister have been bolstered by an opinion poll showing his Hindu nationalist party is set to make strong gains in key northern states in an election that begins on Monday.

Voting in the world’s largest democracy is phased over several weeks, and will end on May 12th. Results are due to be announced on May 16th.

The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), headed by Mr Modi, has benefited from a wave of public anger over corruption scandals and a slowing economy under the ruling Congress party.

Although the polls have repeatedly indicated that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party in the 543-seat lower house of parliament, it is unlikely to win an outright majority, and is seen as most likely to form a coalition government.

The BJP and its allies are forecast to claim 36 per cent of the popular vote in Uttar Pradesh, which as India's most populous state offers the largest number of parliamentary seats, according to a poll published by CNN-IBN and Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

That would give the BJP and its partners between 42 and 50 seats – up slightly from the 41 to 49 seats scored by the BJP in a February survey – and more than half of the 80 seats contested, the poll showed.

The Congress party and its allies, meanwhile, are forecast to pick up just 16 per cent of the popular vote, down 3 per cent from February, giving them only a handful of seats as Congress looks on track for its worst electoral performance.

Difficult to predict
Elections in India's sprawling democracy are notoriously difficult to predict, and translating vote share into actual seats won is not always reliable.

To collect the data for the polls, Lokniti conducted face- to-face interviews with 20,957 voters across 21 states between March 18th and March 25th.

Polls have consistently shown voters favouring Mr Modi, a divisive but charismatic figure, to lead the country. Rahul Gandhi, the political heir of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty appointed to lead the Congress campaign, has struggled to gather support. – (Re uters)