Australian elections: dead cat bounced into bogus black hole

Claiming the other side has a "budget black hole" is an Australian tradition at election time, but this year might see its demise, so great was the overreach by treasurer Scott Morrison last week.

Morrison, his colleagues in the Liberal-National coalition and the News Corporation press repeated ad nauseam that the opposition Labor Party had a spending “black hole”, amounting to $67 billion Australian dollars, in its election figures. The hole, they said amounted to $200 billion over a decade.

Except it isn’t true – Morrison simply plucked the figures out of the air. They were not based on what Labor said it was going to do if elected; they were based on what Morrison decided Labor intended to do.

The bogus black hole unravelled in days, but Morrison had achieved his aim. He spooked Labor into revealing some policies far earlier than planned and changed the national conversation from health – which favours Labor – to the economy, which favours the coalition.

What Morrison did is known as the "dead cat" tactic beloved of political strategists Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor. The two Australians have helped conservative parties win many elections in their homeland and the UK.

Boris Johnson, whom Crosby and Textor helped win two London mayoral elections, gave the game away in a column in the Telegraph three years ago.

“Let us suppose you are losing an argument,” wrote Johnson. “The facts are overwhelmingly against you, and the more people focus on the reality the worse it is for you and your case. Your best bet in these circumstances is to perform a manoeuvre that a great campaigner describes as ‘throwing a dead cat on the table, mate’.

Jeez, mate

“Everyone will shout ‘Jeez, mate, there’s a dead cat on the table!’; in other words they will be talking about the dead cat, the thing you want them to talk about, and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.”

Barnaby Joyce, the National Party leader and deputy prime minister tried to use the dead cat tactic with live cattle, but it failed miserably and almost caused a diplomatic incident with Australia's nearest neighbour, Indonesia.

Joyce linked the previous Labor government’s ban on the live export of cattle to Indonesia and the increase in asylum seeker boats.

In a televised debate, Joyce suggested Labor would bring in another live cattle export ban if elected.

"Might I remind you, when we closed down the live animal export industry, it was around about the same time that we started seeing a lot of people arriving in boats in Australia, " Joyce said, essentially accusing Indonesia of allowing people smuggling.

Indonesia was not impressed. “There is no link between the policy of live export ban and the increased numbers of boats into Australia,” the government responded.

Australia carefully guards its relationship with Indonesia and moved quickly before Joyce’s candour led to further difficulties. The foreign minister spoke directly with her Indonesian counterpart to assure her Joyce hadn’t really meant what it sounded like he meant.

If Joyce had one of the worst lines of the week, he also had one of the best.

Actor Johnny Depp, whose dogs Joyce threatened to euthanise last year after they were illegally brought to Australia, said the deputy prime minister looked like "an inbred tomato". Joyce hit back, hard.

“I’m inside his head. I’m pulling little strings and pulling little levers,” he said. “Long after I’ve forgotten about Mr Depp, he’s remembering me. I’m turning into his Hannibal Lecter.”

Tuning in

There are now five weeks to go in this eight-week campaign. Those who have tuned out so far will begin tuning in, so the messages from both sides will target marginal electorates.

Labor is leading 52 to 48 after preferences in the latest poll, but the polling average has it at 50/50.

Given that Labor needs to win 21 seats to get back in government, the numbers still favour the coalition. On the other hand, first-term coalition governments lost recent state elections in Queensland and Victoria, so everything is still to play for.