Pacified opposition may make strides in Mozambique’s election

The stakes have not been higher since the end of the Mozambican civil war 22 years ago for the political parties and voters participating in the southern African country’s fifth multiparty general election this Wednesday.

Not only are the reins of power and control of billions of euro in future oil and gas revenues up for grabs, but a recently signed peace deal between the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and opposition Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) that ended three years of conflict is also on the line.

Campaigning by political parties and their presidential candidates got under way on August 31st after months of painstaking negotiations between the government and Renamo to end the low-level violence between the former civil war adversaries.

The talks ended in an agreement to end the violence, and stakeholders are hoping electoral tensions do not derail the new-found stability. It is needed to attract billions of euro in foreign investment in the coming years to tap Mozambique’s vast supplies of minerals, coal, gas and – potentially – oil.

The unrest began in 2012 after Renamo leader and presidential candidate Afonso Dhlakama led some of his former rebels back into the bush, where they launched repeated attacks against government troops, road convoys and infrastructure. In three years, well over 100 soldiers, rebels and civilians have died in the clashes that mainly occurred in Sofala province.

Peace deal

Dhlakama and his Renamo supporters were unhappy at not securing a greater share of Mozambique’s post-civil war political and economic gains, and they wanted the government to grant them concessions they maintained they were due under the peace deal that ended the civil war in 1992.

Maputo-based media academic Egidio Vaz Raposo says Renamo secured a number of these electoral concessions in the August 25th deal and, if the vote is fair this week, he believes there could be surprises.

“Renamo did well out of the peace deal in terms of levelling the playing field. The election laws were overhauled: there is now a more balanced representation of party representatives on electoral bodies and campaigning budgets from government were disbursed more equally,” he said.

“It is unlikely that Frelimo will dominate the parliament as it has done for the past 20 years. The party had become arrogant and stopped talking to the other. This was part of the reason peace broke down. If there is a free and fair election there might be an opposition majority in parliament,” he added.

Miguel de Brito of the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (Eisa) also said late last month that Frelimo's share of the presidential and parliamentary votes was unlikely to reach the 75 per cent it secured in 2009. "If I was betting on the results, I would predict 55 per cent for Frelimo and 45 per cent for the combined opposition," De Brito, Eisa's country director in Mozambique, told a press conference in Johannesburg.

Frelimo has a new presidential candidate in Filipe Nyusi, and the party has capitalised on its civil war record to increase its parliamentary majority with every election since the civil war ended, although some of the polls have been disputed.

Last time out, in 2009, the ruling party won 191 of the 250 available seats in parliament.

Renamo holds 51 seats in parliament, and although it is the official opposition the party has been unable to make significant electoral gains in the post-civil war era, which critics maintain is the reason it reverted to violence.

The third party in the running is the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), a Renamo breakaway faction led by Daviz Simango, who is mayor of Beira, the country's second-largest city.

Simango gained 8.6 per cent of the vote in the 2009 presidential election, which was the party’s first poll, compared to Dhlakama, who secured 16.4 per cent. But MDM made significant urban gains in last year’s municipal elections and is expected to make further progress this week. All parties are promising to improve conditions for the poor, while the opposition movements say they will make the government more accountable, independent and efficient if elected.

Mozambique has been one of Africa’s success stories over the past 20 years, turning itself from one of the world’s poorest countries to one of its fastest-growing economies on the back of its discovery of natural resources. Yet despite its impressive economic growth over the last decade, poverty remains widespread, with more than 50 per cent of Mozambicans living on less than $1 a day, which Vaz Raposo says has left a growing number of voters looking for change.

“But I think it will be difficult for Frelimo to leave power. There would need to be a clear, unquestionable election result in favour of the opposition, as small margins are easily manipulated and the ruling party has too many ways of rigging this vote,” he claimed.

Institute for Security Studies senior researcher Nelson Alusala says the re-emergence of conflict, even though it has ceased recently, has international investors assessing the election environment very carefully for signs of instability.

“Campaigning began 45 days before the election and there has not been widespread violence yet, but it is too early to judge conclusively,” he said early this month.

Alusala said that Frelimo’s handling of the return to violence by Renamo could have a very positive effect on voters.

Political optimism

“The government managed to bring the violence with Renamo to an end through a negotiated settlement, and this should give the common voter hope about the future. The ruling party has also been in power a long time and overseen the country’s good development to date, which is another plus for it,” he maintained.

He added that when looking at the two main opposition parties he believed that MDM is viewed in a more positive light by the voters than Renamo.

“MDM is not as controversial as Renamo. It is not armed [Renamo has yet to disarm following the signing of the August peace deal] and it is a more moderate party in its views.”