Africa cases drop for first time since Omicron wave but deaths rise

Africa's recorded Covid-19 cases have dropped for the first time since the Omicron wave began, following a six-week surge, but deaths rose 64 per cent in the past week, according to the World Health Organisation.

"We are still very cautious because the latest data we got was collected in the holiday period, which is known to under-report," said Dr Abdou Salam Gueye, WHO's regional emergency director, during the UN agency's first Africa-focused media briefing in 2022.

Recorded infections declined in three of Africa's subregions, meaning only north and west Africa are still recording an increase in cases, he said.

The rise in deaths was “mainly due to infection among people at high risk”. But he said fatalities recorded in this wave remained below those recorded in the previous waves and hospitalisations have also been low.

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Dominant variant

So far, 30 African countries have detected and reported Omicron. In the hardest-hit countries, it has quickly become the dominant variant, overtaking Delta in two weeks or less. Delta took four weeks to overtake the previous dominant variant, Dr Gueye said.

Vaccination, a “pivotal measure against this virus”, also remained too low, he said. “About 50 per cent of the world’s population is now fully vaccinated. In Africa this is just 10 per cent ... Just 26 [countries] have vaccinated 10 per cent of their population, a target that was to be reached by September last year.”

Dr Gueye said the current “vaccination bottlenecks” were “less about supply than they are about rollout” and WHO was working with governments to refine and implement vaccine rollout strategies, address funding shortfalls and boost collaborations with communities to encourage vaccinations.

“The coming months will be critical in Africa’s efforts to improve vaccination. The continent cannot afford to remain [on] the fringe of this historic vaccination drive,” he said.

Dr Anita Graham, a critical care specialist at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said 95 per cent of its cases were now Omicron. While it was clearly the most infectious variant, she said it is also the least severe Covid-19 wave to date "with much less hospitalisations and much less ICU requirements".

Unvaccinated

She pointed out that pre-existing immunity in South Africa’s population is estimated to be about 70 per cent, because of previous infection as well as vaccinations. While Omicron had been less virulent, there were still serious cases among the unvaccinated and those with co-morbidities.

The African continent has registered 10.2 million cases and at least 231,445 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.

When asked whether 2022 would be the year that Covid-19 would be eradicated, Dr Graham said she was of the belief that Covid-19 would be “with us for our lifetimes”.

“We will be unable to provide global containment and eradication of this virus and we should push towards mitigation,” she said. “We will live with this disease. Instead of it [being] a pandemic it will become endemic globally.

“The only way we can in fact mitigate this disease is through widespread vaccination and the use of other intervention strategies including non-pharmaceutical interventions: mask wearing, hand washing and social distancing.”