THE world's population will pass 6 billion by the year after next, and the growth of cities will be the single largest influence on development in the 21st century, the UN Population Fund states in its 1996 report.
The world's current population of 5.8 billion people includes 2.6 billion city dwellers, 1.7 billion of whom live in developing countries, according to the report.
Within 10 years, more than half the people in the world will be living in cities, and nearly all the urban population increase will occur in developing countries.
Currently, two out of three urban dwellers live in developing regions. By 2015 it would be more than three out of four, and by 2025 nearly four out of five, the report forecast. "Much of this growth will come in the world's poorest countries, and many of the new urban dwellers, particularly women and their children, will be among the poorest people in the world", it added.
UN population projections for 2015 range from a low of 7.10 billion to a high of 7.83 billion worldwide. "The difference of 720 million people in the short span of 20 years is nearly equivalent to the current population of Africa", the report notes.
By 2050, the low projection shows a world population of 7.9 billion and the high projection a population of 11.9 billion.
The report recorded low yearly birth rates in Europe, North America and Japan at 0.1 per cent, 0.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Oceania, Latin America and Asia were close to the world average of 1.5 per cent at 1.4, 1.7 and 1.5 per cent, respectively.
The challenge of the urban future would be to sustain progress in social development in the face of unprecedented pressure. Even as urban based economies grow, they are "in danger of being overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of the poor and the dispossessed", the report warned.
It said there were an estimated 600 million people in urban areas in developing regions who could not meet basic needs for shelter, water and health from their own resources.
"Increasing urbanisation has the potential for improving human life or increasing human misery", the report states. "The cities can provide opportunities or frustrate their attainment, promote health or cause disease, empower people to realise their needs and desires or impose on them a simple struggle for basic survival."