The Conservative Party leader, helped by Labour's difficulties, has brought the Tories to within sight of power. But as he prepares for this week's party conference, Europe is still the issue with potential to undermine his successes so far, writes
MARK HENNESSY, London Editor
A YOUNG, ENERGETIC leader, with a young family and who speaks well, stands on the threshold of 10 Downing Street, having restored his party's fortunes in the eyes of the public. The image could be one of Labour's Tony Blair back in 1997 or of the Tories' David Cameron today: both changed the image of their parties in the eyes of an electorate who had deemed them unelectable.
Dubbed by some as Blair Lite, Cameron, however, has done less than Blair, having won no equivalent victory to the latter's 1995 success in ridding Labour of Clause IV, its decades-old commitment to nationalisation. Consequently, faultlines remain within the Tories, particularly over Europe. The issue has caused havoc amongst them since the early 1990s, and could do so again during next week's party conference in Manchester.
Cameron has had to shift and turn on major issues throughout his leadership, seeking to assure the electorate that public services would be safe under a Tory party led by him, and attempting to claim the green agenda.
Since he took over in 2005, the Conservatives' tax and spending plans have oscillated, beginning with pledges to keep on increasing spending, though by less than Labour would do. Colder economic winds have now forced Cameron to go further. In early September, he was the clearest yet, saying: "We will cut public spending, not freeze it, not hold it in real terms, but cut public spending." He has done this in the belief that the British public is willing to bear short-term pain in order to get to grips with the British exchequer's rapacious borrowing, or, at least, that they are willing to see others doing so.
Prime minister Gordon Brown argues that Cameron is only now showing his true colours and that everything up to this point was nothing more than camouflage to cover the Tories' constant ambition "to shrink the state". In Cameron's own eyes, he is a "modern, compassionate conservative", a fan of Margaret Thatcher but not necessarily a Thatcherite. He claims that he is not "a deeply ideological person".
A wealthy couple, Cameron and his wife, Samantha, are reputed to worth up to £30 million (€33 million). Labour has already seized upon his patrician establishment background and will do so with mounting viciousness as the election campaign accelerates. And there are elements of Cameron's background - the schooling at Eton and the fact that he's the son of a wealthy stockbroker, a distant relation of royalty and a closer one of the Astors - that can be used to make him seem remote from the British public.
The Conservatives are sensitive on the issue, and have gone on major searches to hunt down old college photographs of both Cameron and his shadow chancellor, George Osborne that highlight the "toff" image.
In 2007, one emerged showing Cameron in tails, alongside Boris Johnson, now mayor of London, on a night out in Oxford days with others from the Bullingdon Club, which had a reputation for hard-drinking, unruly behaviour and damaging property.
The photograph did not stay in the public domain for long, and the owner was quickly persuaded to refuse copyright permission to anyone else. The same happened with a photograph of Osborne grouse-hunting, with a shotgun broken in his arms.
Cameron's prosperous, privileged background will be given a wider airing next Wednesday, when Channel 4 broadcasts a documentary-drama on Cameron and Johnson's time in the Bullingdon Club.
So far, it has done him little harm, and it has done even less to Johnson, whose foppish and chaotic manner did not stop him winning the London mayoralty despite the many predictions otherwise.
It is unlikely to haunt Cameron unless he makes mistakes on the wider political front. If he does falter, however, the Little Lord Fauntleroy image, first dreamt up by Guardian cartoonist Steve Bell, will return to damage him.
IN BRIGHTON THISweek, the Labour leadership drove home the message again and again that the Tories would destroy public services, highlighting Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan's declaration on US TV this summer that the National Health Service has been "a 60-year failed experiment".
"Daniel Hannan is not the eccentric fringe of the Tory party, but the beating heart of the Tory party," Labour's deputy leader, Harriet Harman, told delegates, warning that the Tories are preparing "a millionaire's manifesto".
Alarmed by the impact of Hannan's words, Cameron quickly came out and promised real spending increases for the NHS during the lifetime of the next parliament, if the Tories win.
Like all other candidates for high political office, Cameron is trying to have it both ways, portraying himself as a tough leader for tough times, while also being the one who will best care for the weak.
In his speech in Brighton, prime minister Brown seemingly attempted to raise the bar for Cameron's much-awaited leader's address to the Tory conference in Manchester this week. Essentially, Brown gave a preview of the Labour election manifesto in the hope that Cameron would be forced to do likewise, thus giving Labour something to target, rather than simply having to defend its own record.
Privately, senior Labour people display a wary respect for Cameron which was not always there, but they are convinced that the weak underbelly of his party will be George Osborne. A focus on the shadow chancellor, who has shown distinctly weak judgment a number of times during the global economic crisis over the last year, may be wise, as his boss, Cameron, like Blair, is a chameleon, ever-able to change his presentation.
CAMERON WILL HAVEto display those chameleon-like traits even before the Manchester conference begins on Monday, once the result of the keenly awaited Lisbon referendum from Ireland is known.
Up to now, Cameron has adopted a eurosceptic stance, withdrawing the Tories from its European Parliament alliance with the European People's Party for one with a ragbag of small right-wing parties from eastern Europe.
Either way, the Irish result leaves him with major decisions. A No vote might be easier, some diplomats argue, because Germany and France would be likely to declare Lisbon dead, rather than giving Cameron the pleasure of doing it.
However, a Yes vote will pose a major challenge for Cameron, who is only too aware of the destruction that Tory attitudes to Europe wreaked upon John Major's administration.
Clearly believing at the time that Ireland would accept Lisbon, the Tory leader emphasised the wriggle room available during an interview with a London radio station on Wednesday.
"If this treaty is still alive, if it is still being discussed and debated anywhere in Europe, then we will give you that referendum, we will name the date during the election campaign, we'll hold that referendum straight away and I will lead the campaign for a no," he said. "Now, if those circumstances change, if the Germans ratify, if the Poles ratify, if the Czechs ratify, if the Irish vote yes to the treaty, then a new set of circumstances [ will apply], and I will address those at the time."
Urging Tory delegates not to press the issue too hard, the Conservative shadow foreign secretary, William Hague, made clear yesterday that a new European policy will not be launched in Manchester next week.
However, Cameron's pledge to hold a referendum if the issue is still "live" will not satisfy his eurosceptic grassroots, who will find it difficult to accept that a UK referendum should depend on anything that the Czechs, the Germans or the Poles do, let alone the Irish.
The scale of the difficulties Europe presents for Cameron will depend, ironically, on the job prospects of the man he most resembles, Tony Blair, who may yet become president of the European Council, the so-called "president of Europe". France's Nicolas Sarkozy supports him and Germany's Angela Merkel may be prepared to accept him if Germany gets other key jobs, while a campaign to press Finland's Paavo Lipponen's candidacy is struggling.
Whatever happens, Europe will remain toxic for the Tories.
"The Tories have gone on major searches to hunt down old college photographs that highlight Cameron's 'toff' image