Will babies born today really live until 2109?

Danish researchers believe so, saying that the majority born in developed countries will live to 100 – but others believe the obesity time bomb will explode in the meantime

IF RECENT STUDIES from the Danish Ageing Research Centre are to be believed, the majority of babies born in Ireland from now on will live to be 100. The team of researchers examined life expectancy throughout the high-income world and found developed nations gained an average of 30 years per person during the 20th century.

Researchers argue that if trends over the past 150 years continue, the majority born from now on will live to ripe old ages, with better quality of life and less chance of debilitating disease or disability. The news, which will be music to the ears of life assurance sales reps, may pose challenging implications for medical officials and public health workers across the developed world.

“Very long lives are not the distant privilege of remote generations – very long lives are the probable destiny of most people alive now in developed nations,” say the report’s authors. One of them, Prof Kaare Christensen, says the conclusions were based on accurate records available for the past century, and have shown a predictable trend. “If we look at how long people are living, there is a remarkable consistency for the past 150 years and our job was to make a guess about the next 150 years. If we have the same steady pace of advancement in the next period, our conclusion is that more than half of all babies born now will live to 100 years old.”

According to Prof Christensen: “The two things that have greatly added to our life expectancy are the fact that childhood mortality was reduced in the first half of the 20th century. The second is that mortality rates for our elderly have been reduced dramatically in the second half of the century. When you add both developments together you get an added 30 years during the period.”

The challenge now, says Prof Christensen, is to ensure that those of us who are living longer also have a good quality of life. “We now have a situation in high-income countries where young deaths are very rare and there is not much room for improvement in that area.

“If trends continue, we need to make progress among older people, so in order to keep in this nice trajectory we need to further reduce mortality for the elderly. The risk of dying [between the ages of] 80 and 90 varies in different countries. We need to examine this.”

But before you rush out to extend your pension payments and defer the down payment on a family burial plot, some health professionals are questioning the findings and querying exactly how long we might live. Dr Chris Luke, emergency medicine consultant at University Mercy Hospital in Cork, believes “The basis of our life expectancy rise over the last 100 years has been the unimpeded trajectory of scientific development. Post the chaos of the second World War, there was a unique opportunity for agreement and cohesion, and the conflict that blighted humans for thousands of years was staved off. Life expectancy in places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo is still being prevented from rising naturally because of conflict. Security is the first requirement for us to live longer, followed by nutrition and then technology,” he says.

Despite the fact that there is an abundance of nutrition available in the developed world, that security is provided and technology continues to advance, Dr Luke is sceptical that the majority of babies born now will live to be centenarians. “If you look at the top 10 causes of death at present, obesity is second or third on the list. This is a self-made, artificial form of euthanasia. People are arguably bringing euthanasia upon themselves and between a third and half of us are obese. We are only beginning to appreciate the challenges this is having on society. It is presenting us with an array of difficulties, such as injury due to clumsiness and falling over, problems with surgery on obese patients, even down to getting equipment such as scanners and trolleys appropriate for such patients.”

Dr Luke says that while the optimism of the recent report might be understandable, in his opinion, we will go backwards in life expectancy before going forwards again.

“When you take the obesity threat in conjunction with the rise in self-harm, smoking, drinking, abuse of drugs, it will have an impact on life expectancy. What I am saying then is that all of us living longer is wonderful speculation, and at this moment in time it might sound reasonable and plausible, but I cannot imagine it will be valid over the next five to 10 years. I see life expectancy as beginning a backward slide.”