Westerners are fleeing or going into hiding following the latest kidnappings, reports Jack Fairweather from Baghdad.
Baghdad Babeesh restaurant in the centre of the Iraqi capital used to appeal to a certain class of customer. Western businessmen, journalists or contractors like Kenneth Bigley would spend money on imported bottles of wine and enjoy the good life in Iraq.
Nowadays the restaurant is all but deserted, the kidnapping of foreigners having driven Westerners into the shelter of the fortress-like hotels or into the Green Zone, the heavily fortified government compound in the centre of Baghdad.
"It's a tragedy for our restaurant," says maître d'hôtel Abbass Issa, whose guests used to include the Australian ambassador accompanied by two armoured vehicles. "Now no one comes. Our work is over."
Baghdad is a city nervously awaiting the next outrage. The security situation, already tenuous, has reached a new nadir and many believe it is set to worsen as elections approach.
In the past week, Americans Eugene Armstrong and Jack Hensley, who were kidnapped along with Bigley, were gruesomely murdered by Islamic extremists loyal to Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. Videos of their beheadings were posted on an Arabic website. Two Italian aid workers seized more than three weeks ago were also reported to have been butchered, although the Italian government, keen to assure a worried nation, says it has received no word on their fate.
At the time of writing, Bigley remains in the hands of al-Zarqawi's group, who released footage of him begging British Prime Minister Tony Blair to save his life. The British government has been saying that all efforts are being made to secure Bigley's release, although it refuses to negotiate with terrorists. The kidnappers are demanding the release of all female prisoners from US custody.
Bigley's family were given a brief glimmer of hope on Tuesday when the Iraqi government offered to release one of the two women currently held by US forces. Rihab Taha, a former leading weapons scientist, had been approved for release by the Americans last week. Iraq's justice minister, Malik Dohan al-Hassan - apparently in response to the kidnappers' demands - then stated that she would be released on bail later this week.
But the response of the US embassy in Baghdad to al-Hassan's statement left the world in little doubt about who retains the real power in Iraq. An embassy spokesman said: "Both of them [the women prisoners] are in the physical and legal custody of the multi-national forces. There is no imminent release and these cases are constantly under review."
It seems Bigley's last chance may well rest with Irish politicians. On Thursday, Michael D. Higgins offered to travel to Iraq after Bigley's family contacted the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to campaign for the safe release of Bigley. The hostage's 86-year-old mother, Elizabeth, was born in Ticknock, south Co Dublin.
The grim drama has convinced most Westerners still living in Iraq that it is time to consider leaving the country for good.
"You've got to ask yourself why you came here in the first place. Was it to help the Iraqis rebuild their country? If it was, then it's time to leave. They don't want our help," says one contractor.
"Iraq's just not worth risking your life over," says another contractor who works for the same firm (as supervisor of a water-management project in Baghdad) and lives in the Green Zone.
The contractors, who do not want to be named, have not come out from behind the concrete barricades of the compounds to inspect their work since April, when the first kidnappings of Westerners began. Their Iraqi staff have also been threatened.
Other Westerners who chose to continue living in suburban Baghdad have now either fled or gone into hiding in response to the spate of kidnappings. Many had hoped they would fall beneath the terrorist radar by not displaying any obvious security trappings. They travelled around the city in old Iraqi cars rather than in the 4x4 jeeps once favoured by Western businessmen. Some even chose to wear Iraqi dress to improve their chances of not being singled out.
One Western businessman, who asked not to be identified, said he would remain, even though he lives in the same Manzur neighbourhood from which Armstrong, Hensley and Bigley were kidnapped.
"For the time being I'm going to stay put and take stock. I feel in a state of shock at the last few weeks. The situation has changed very quickly," he says. "I feel that so long as I don't leave the house I should be OK."
For others, the constant threat of kidnapping has persuaded them to pack up and leave the area. More than 100 foreigners have been kidnapped since an April uprising began against US-led occupation forces. Of these, 30 have been killed.
This week, the Manzur premises of a Western firm specialising in training Iraqi security men stands deserted.
"The Westerners left last week. They said they were not coming back," explains one Iraqi guard.
Until the latest hostage crisis, dozens of Britons were arriving each week in Baghdad. Most were security men, tempted by the high pay on offer for a few months' work. A British embassy official said it was too soon to tell what effect the latest kidnappings would have on the number of arrivals. The British embassy has warned that insurgents are employing new tactics to capture Westerners and has told Britons to stay away. There are currently more than 2,000 British civilians in Iraq and more than 5,000 Americans.
According to David Horgan, an Irish businessman who has travelled to Iraq eight times since the official end of the war, there are at least 100 Irish-born civilians working there at present, a figure which "could rise to well over 1,000" by including Irish soldiers in the British army and Americans holding Irish passports.
"I've heard directly about 40 Irish people, and I haven't been looking. There would be at least 100," he says. "An architect friend of mine was offered a package including four former SAS bodyguards, a helicopter, a basic salary of £150,000 plus expenses and anything else he wanted to come and build police stations around the country."
Despite the dire security situation, Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi announced to the US Congress on Thursday that he was winning the fight against terrorism in Iraq. In a speech apparently aimed at winning US voters over to the George Bush camp rather than at reflecting realities in Iraq, he said "the values of liberty and democracy" were taking hold and that the country could hold elections "tomorrow" in 15 out of 18 provinces.
"We know that Americans have made and continue to make enormous sacrifices," Allawi said. "I've come here to thank you and promise that the sacrifices are not in vain."
The speech did not go down well in Baghdad, where Allawi's political stock has plummeted since he took over power from the Americans on June 28th. Although Iraqis looked to him to solve the country's security crisis, he has been unable to stop the slide into anarchy.
Reconstruction work has all but ground to a halt in Iraq. The security risks mean that Western firms that initially won reconstruction contracts have been forced to outsource to Middle Eastern firms, leading to further delays and restructuring costs.
"Very little infrastructure improvement is getting done any more. It's very difficult to see what progress is being made," says one Iraqi official.
Westerners no longer go to the once- popular Warda supermarket, according to assistant manager Johnson Denkha, although well-to-do Iraqis still come. But business is down. "I'm sure it is not Iraqis who are doing the kidnapping," Denkha adds. "But if it is Iraqis then they are the worst of men."
Additional reporting by Ruadhán Mac Cormaic