What it means for Ireland

AT THE most basic level, the titanic effort to take control of the crisis brings with it the hope that any resolution will secure…

AT THE most basic level, the titanic effort to take control of the crisis brings with it the hope that any resolution will secure the Republic’s recovery.

However, German warnings that there is no magic bullet solution show just how grave the challenge actually is. Indeed, it is difficult to find anyone involved in the crisis who argues that it can be expunged on the strength of action taken in a single summit.

Whatever happens on Sunday, Europe still faces a long, hard slog to find its way out of the mire. The same goes for this State. While Dublin has won plaudits for its execution of the bailout, the economic recovery is not yet entrenched.

The summit package presents opportunities and threats to the Government.

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Priority for Taoiseach Enda Kenny and his Ministers is to avoid being drawn into any talk of an Irish default once a Greek restructuring deal is done.

The danger here is that markets would simply jump to the conclusion that the same fate awaits other bailout recipients, making the Republic’s return to markets next year more difficult.

In an attempt to avoid such pressure, EU leaders are likely to state that the Greek case is unique. Convincing markets is another thing, however, and depends on whether the Government achieves control over its public finances.

Then there is treaty change. German chancellor Angela Merkel hasn’t set out publicly how she wants to amend the Lisbon pact. Still, it seems clear that the change would make it easier for the EU to impose its will on the economic policies of recalcitrant member states.

If such a measure is to have any teeth at all, it would embrace a transfer of power to Brussels from Dublin. It would, therefore, necessitate a referendum in the Republic, something Mr Kenny would not relish.

Separately, any move to provide European Financial Stability Facility money for bank recapitalisations could open the door for the Government to seek a cheaper alternative to the expensive promissory note financing with which it is recapitalising Anglo Irish Bank.