ROME LETTER:A number of factors could yet produce another Houdini-style escape by Silvio Berlusconi in two 'no confidence' motions in parliament, writes PADDY AGNEW
THE RUBBISH continues to pile up in the streets of Naples. The world’s most famous archaeological site, Pompeii, is literally falling to bits. An historic ally, Gianfranco Fini, has abandoned ship. The government was defeated three times the other day in the lower house.
Worse still, weekly revelations of the prime minister's enthusiasm for the company of young ladies in his private, after hours, "bunga bunga" moments continue to attract negative international headlines – a cover story in the current edition of US weekly Newsweekis but the latest example.
Even the acclaimed Mafia expert, writer Roberto Saviano, has no good news for the government, pointing out to a blockbuster nine million strong TV audience this week that the Ndrangheta, the all powerful Calabrian Mafia, now has government ally, the Northern League, as its number one interlocutor in northern Italy. Put another way, the allegation is the Northern League, or a small minority of its senior exponents, are “in business” with organised crime.
Can the Great Survivor, media tycoon and 74-year-old Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi ride out this one?
To say the least, it would appear the prime minister is in a very tight corner.
An opinion poll by Demos Pi, based on a survey of just under 1,000 people last weekend and published by Rome daily La Repubblica, claims if Italians went to the polls tomorrow, Berlusconi's People of Freedom party (PDL) would return a 23.6 per cent vote, smaller than the opposition Democratic Party (PD) on 24.8 per cent and a long way down on the 37.4 per cent returned by the PDL at the 2008 general election.
In a popularity listing, Berlusconi ranks eighth of nine candidates, scoring 32.4 per cent as opposed to the 47.5 per cent recorded by one potential general election rival, Nichi Vendola, governor of Puglia and leader of the leftist SEL party.
So does all of this mean that on December 14th when parliament comes to vote on two “no confidence” motions in the centre-right government led by Berlusconi, that our Silvio will be given the old heave-ho? Ah well, lads, just hang on there a moment. The Great Survivor may be down but he is not yet out.
A number of factors may see yet another Houdini-style escape in parliament next month. For a start, there is the legendary, uncanny inability of the centre-left to make any significant capital out of Berlusconi’s recurring “problems”. (Another one could be on the way next month when the Consulta, a constitutional court, issues a judgement on the Legitimate Impediment law, yet another measure seen by Berlusconi’s opponents as “ad personam” legislation to help him circumnavigate his own many faceted judicial problems).
However, if and when Berlusconi is defeated – and that remains a very big “if” – who will lead the opposition fight against him in an eventual general election?
For the time being we are not at the point given that, even if he were defeated, a broad swathe of political forces, on both left and right, would dearly like to form some sort of “technical” coalition government of national “responsibility” rather than head out to the hustings in this current less than clement global economic climate.
Berlusconi has made it clear he feels that either he wins next month’s confidence votes or the country goes to an early election. Strictly speaking, this is not his call. That onerous task falls to the state president, 85-year-old Giorgio Napolitano.
However, nothing that the president has done in his four years in office would suggest he has the political will or strength to resist an insistent Berlusconi.
If and when we come to an early election, the only obvious centre-left candidate in sight is the openly gay, Catholic governor of Puglia, namely Nichi Vendola. Yet, with its unparalleled ability to pick the wrong horse, the PD seems very reluctant to throw its lot in with him.
When Vendola ran in Puglia two years ago, PD heavyweight and former prime minister Massimo D’Alema campaigned long and hard to try to defeat him in leftist primary elections, preferring another centre-left candidate.
Likewise, only last weekend, the PDs suffered a similar reverse in Milan when leftist voters ignored the party’s choice in mayoral primaries, electing instead as candidate, lawyer and former deputy Domenico Pisapia. The key point here is that Pisapia enjoyed the backing and full support of Vendola.
Despite all of that, the PDs are quite capable of insisting on being a centrist party, not only eschewing natural allies such as Vendola and IDV leader, former investigating magistrate Antonio Di Pietro but also, in the process, throwing away possibly their one and only winning card in an electoral contest with Berlusconi.
However, before we get to that, Berlusconi has to lose at least one of those votes next month. Given that the prime minister has time on his side – parliament must first ratify the 2011 budget – and given Berlusconi’s highly persuasive powers – on wavering allies – it isn’t over yet.
