WHEN NÉSTOR Kirchner died suddenly of a heart attack last October it was a double tragedy for his wife, Argentine president Cristina Kirchner.
Not only had she lost her husband of 35 years but also the political partner who had orchestrated the victory which saw her succeed him as president in 2008.
Even after Néstor had handed over the presidential baton to his wife, the president-turned-first husband was still acknowledged as the main power within her administration and was widely believed to have been preparing to run as her successor as part of their his-and-her political double act.
In the days that followed his death, as an ashen-faced Cristina mourned with thousands of supporters, political commentators at home and abroad were quick to predict the imminent demise of kirchnerismo – a combative left-wing version of Argentina’s populist Peronist creed – now that its founder and leader was suddenly gone.
The couple had suffered a first defeat in midterm elections in 2009 and opinion polls showed either one losing to the opposition in the race to retain the presidency.
BUT NOW, LESS than a year later, Néstor’s widow is cruising towards a new four-year term with all opinion polls showing she is set to win a crushing victory in Sunday’s presidential election.
Two-thirds of voters tell pollsters they consider the result a foregone conclusion and are paying no attention to the campaign. In an attempt to tap into the mood of apathy, Kirchner has scaled back plans for the mass rallies so beloved of Peronist leaders lest unruly supporters upset her serene progress towards a third term for kirchnerismo.
Kirchner needs just 45 per cent of the vote or 40 per cent with a 10-point lead over the second-placed candidate to avoid a run-off round. The latest opinion poll gives her 53 per cent, leaving her on course to win the highest share of the vote since the return of democracy in 1983.
Of the deeply divided opposition, her nearest challenger is socialist Hermes Binner, who trails more than 36 points behind her on 16.6 per cent.
Tough local political commentators sound ghoulish pointing it out, the president has been the major political beneficiary of her husband’s sudden death.
On the eve of his heart attack her support was languishing at 20 per cent. After a week of public mourning it had jumped to 30 per cent. Within two months a wave of national sympathy for a woman who suddenly seemed all alone in the Casa Rosada had pushed her numbers towards 45 per cent.
Kirchner has not been shy about capitalising on her widowhood. All year she has appeared in black and is quick to shed a tear during public events at some intimate remembrance of her husband – now part of every presidential speech. One of her campaign slogans is " ¡Fuerza Cristina!" ("Strength Cristina") – the phrase many in the crowds shouted at her during her husband's funeral.
She has also overseen a relentless campaign to turn her deceased husband into a Peronist myth along with the movement’s founder, Juan Domingo Perón, and his wife, Evita. In speeches she now rarely refers to him by name, simply telling supporters “he lives on” in every Argentine family that receives the children’s allowance he created.
IN BUENOS AIRES, Kirchner supporters have put up posters claiming “One day the children of your children will ask about Him”, and he has even been transformed into a cartoon, Néstornauta, based on the popular Argentine character Eternauta.
But since her husband’s death Kirchner has also overseen an important change in presidential style. She has worked hard to present herself as a more conciliatory leader than her husband, whose aggressive attacks on opponents had begun to alienate voters before his death.
It was Néstor who was behind the campaign to raise taxes on farmers in 2008, which resulted in months of political turmoil, social tension and an eventual defeat for the Kirchners which started Cristina’s precipitous decline in the polls.
“My feeling was that Néstor before he died was not an asset but a liability to his wife’s government,” says Marcelo Leiras, chief investigator at Buenos Aires think tank Cippec.
“There were signs that his political instincts were off since 2008. In that respect I am not surprised that without that burden she is doing better.”
In many respects the change is merely presentational. In the past year the government has intensified campaigns against parts of the media and sectors of the financial community that have clashed with the government over reporting of inflation. But instead of leading such battles herself, Kirchner has left them to subordinates who are much less popular than she is.
EARLIER THIS MONTH her powerful domestic trade secretary, Guillermo Moreno, had a huge banner hung from a government building in downtown Buenos Aires claiming “Clarín Lies” as part of the government’s battle against the country’s most powerful media conglomerate.
Moreno is also leading the government’s offensive against its opponents in the battle over the country’s inflation figure. Since 2007, when Néstor Kirchner oversaw the sacking of the team responsible for compiling the data and replaced it with people loyal to the Casa Rosada, the official rate is widely acknowledged to chronically under-report price rises.
The government claims inflation is about 9 per cent a year, though most economists put the actual number at 25 per cent, a figure implicitly recognised by the government when awarding pay rises to workers at or above 25 per cent.
In defence of the official rate, Moreno earlier this year started handing out huge fines to local financial institutions that reported inflation above the government’s figure and let it be known that his secretariat was listing the names of journalists who published such figures. To avoid fines, the unofficial inflation rate is now read out in congress by opposition deputies who enjoy parliamentary privilege.
The opposition has sought to capitalise on concern over rising prices and corruption scandals that regularly see members of the government and its supporters accused of wrongdoing in the press and congress.
BUT WITH ECONOMIC growth averaging above 7 per cent since Néstor Kirchner was sworn in as president in 2003, a majority of Argentines are ready to overlook the rougher edges of Cristina Kirchner’s administration. Since 2002 more than five million jobs have been created, helping society recover from the trauma of the 2001 economic crash, when unemployment hit one in five and more than half the population fell into poverty.
The Kirchner administrations have used high taxes on food exports to expand the state sector, creating more than one million public jobs. Along with the massive expansion in social programmes to combat poverty and extended pension coverage, it means that more than half the population is now dependent on the state for an income, according to a report by one local think tank.
The government has also resorted to blatant populist measures long a staple of Peronist politicians in its drive to win support. Earlier this year it oversaw a programme nicknamed “LCDs for everyone”, in which a state bank offered cheap financing for flat-screen televisions ahead of the country’s hosting of the Copa America football championship.
But economists warn that the boom in Argentina is dependent on the high prices being paid for its food exports, mainly thanks to demand from China for the country’s soy beans. These are heavily taxed by the government, providing it with funds to pump into the rest of the economy.
“IF CHINA SNEEZES Argentina is going to catch H1N1 with a real possibility of death,” warns economist Alberto Bernal.
“Argentina is 100 per cent dependent on what happens in China. Despite the fact Argentina follows protectionist policies and talks about being self-sufficient, the reality is its economic stability is based on the price of soy beans.
“If the price collapses Argentina is going to have a very hard time. If something happens to China and commodity prices fall, forget about it.”
Such warnings are ominous considering a 20 per cent plunge in soy prices since August in response to signs of a slowdown in China and the ongoing financial crisis in wealthy economies.
Capital flight has accelerated this year with Argentines squirrelling somewhere in the region of €6 billion abroad.
The government is also scrambling to work out a way to meet heavy debt repayments that fall due next year as it is still unable to access global capital markets, in part a hangover from its record debt default in 2001.
Kirchner counters that the country’s economy is “strong and prepared” to weather any global crisis. That confidence will only be put to the test after Sunday’s vote.
Barring a monumental collapse, Kirchner will have secured a second term when she marks the first anniversary of her husband’s death on October 27th by inaugurating a colossal marble mausoleum for him in his native Patagonian city of Río Gallegos.