Wary Abbas faces herculean task

Middle East: There has been no honeymoon period for the new Palestinian president, writes Michael Jansen.

Middle East: There has been no honeymoon period for the new Palestinian president, writes Michael Jansen.

Portrayed by the international community and Israel as the man who can resolve the problems plaguing the Palestinian people and negotiate peace, their new President, Mr Mahmud Abbas, has been granted no honeymoon period of grace.

Instead, Palestinian militiamen have fired rockets into Israel which has responded with incursions into Gaza. This leaves Mr Abbas, a cautious, uncharismatic businessman and bureaucrat known as "Abu Mazen," on his own and forces him to deal quickly with herculean tasks which could defeat him within weeks of his assumption of office.

His first priority is to exert "100 per cent effort" to reduce attacks on Israel. He has ordered his battered and demoralised security services to prevent operations, but it is unlikely that they can actually do so.

READ MORE

Although all its members are drawn from Abu Mazen's Fatah movement, the security services have split into factions loyal to competing local commanders.

This is particularly true in Gaza. Warlords have sidelined the security forces in the cities of Nablus and Jenin in the northern West Bank. Kinship ties between policemen and resistance fighters also prevent Abu Mazen from cracking down on the latter. This is why he intends to use persuasion rather than force and to "protect" fighters from Israel rather than detain and disarm them.

While a majority of Palestinians back his demand for an end to the intifada, a substantial minority is not prepared to forsake the armed struggle until the Palestinians see real improvements on the ground and Abu Mazen is engaged with Israel in negotiations for the emergence of a viable Palestinian state according to a fixed time-table.

He can end the cycle of violence only by securing commitments to a mutual, simultaneous cessation of hostilities from both Palestinian groups and Israel. But this is an almost impossible task.

The groups refuse to cease attacks on Israel until Israel agrees to halt military incursions into Palestinian areas, assassinations of leading militants, and pursuit of activists. Israel's decision to launch security contacts with Abu Mazen makes it possible for him to begin discussing a deal.

His task on this front would be much easier if he could carry out essential reorganisation in the security sphere. But the factors mitigating against the suppression of resistance organisations also obstruct reform.

The existence of strong factions within the security forces makes it difficult for him to consolidate 11 separate agencies into three - internal security, intelligence, and army - and appoint new commanders.

Ending corruption, nepotism and mismanagement is another of Abu Mazen's daunting tasks. While the Palestinian Authority's finances have been reformed over the past few years and there is a large degree of transparency and accountability, little has been done to end corruption and favouritism.

He must prepare for July's election to the 88-member Palestinian Legislative Council seen as the means to bring in Hamas and other opposition parties and to effect the transition between the old guard, led by president and premier, to a new generation of Fatah leaders. For this poll to be free and fair, Abu Mazen will have to rein in Fatah.

Finally, Abu Mazen must end Israel's expropriation of Palestinian land, halt its settlement drive and road and wall construction in the West Bank, ease closures on Palestinian cities, towns and villages, and lift barricades.

He must engage Israel in negotiations, not just on security matters or to ease its evacuation of Gaza, but also to end the occupation of the West Bank.

Abu Mazen has promised a final deal which would give Palestinians an independent state in almost all of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.

He seeks talks on the basis of the "road map" plan to create a Palestinian state beside Israel but the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, wants to sideline this plan while he tightens Israel's grip on large tracts of the West Bank he intends to keep.

Unless the international community presses Israel to strengthen Abu Mazen by lifting restrictions on Palestinians and giving him time to bring an end to violence and carry out reforms, he is unlikely to last long enough to negotiate a peace deal.

He could, instead, become another sad, solitary figure haunting the muqata in Ramallah.