REPORTS from Belfast that the leadership of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) has - through a third party - suspended its contacts with the Government in Dublin have ominous overtones.
The UVF is the only loyalist paramilitary organisation which has shown a capacity to make and detonate bombs. It was responsible for the May, 1974, bombs in Dublin in, which 28 people were killed, the worst single outrage in The Troubles.
It was also responsible for the last bomb attacks in Dublin and there were signs that it was starting to escalate its operations against targets in the Republic when the ceasefires were called.
The bomb aimed at a Sinn Fein social function at The Widow Scallans public house in Pearse Street in May, 1994, three months before the IRA ceasefire, failed to explode.
However, the bomb contained over 30lbs of commercial explosive and was placed inside a retaining wall. Had it exploded, it would have brought down the building which was packed with people and dozens could have been killed. An IRA member, acting as doorman, was shot dead by the bombers.
The Widow Scallans bomb, planted by a team of loyalists mostly from east Belfast, was faulty, however, and it is clear the loyalists had not achieved the same technical expertise evident in IRA bombs.
However, the UVF had obtained commercial explosive and was prepared to use bombs against civilian targets, even after the IRA ceasefire.
On September 12th, 1994, almost two weeks after the IRA ceasefire, a UVF bomb partly exploded on a train pulling into Connolly Station, Dublin, spraying undetonated dynamite over passengers. Loyalist sources later confirmed they had difficulties in convincing their members to call off their attacks and allow the October, 1994, loyalist ceasefire to be called.
The UVF poses the main threat to the Republic, as it is the only loyalist organisation to have developed bomb making skills.
The Ulster Defence Association (UDA), also known by its nom de guerre, the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF), has only a very crude bomb making capacity and tends to specialise in assassinations and gun attacks on Catholics.
UDA members were responsible for the gun attacks at the Rising Sun bar in Greysteel, Co Derry, in November, 1993, in which seven people were killed, and for the attack on the book makers on the Ormeau Road in south Belfast in 1992, in which five were killed.
The smallest loyalist paramilitary organisation, the Red Hand Commando, is much more limited in resources that either the UDA or UVF.
The leaderships of the threes organisations meet occasionally under the umbrella of the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC) and it was through this body that the loyalist ceasefire was called in October, 1994.
If the loyalists are to break their ceasefire and resume attacks, an announcement will almost certainly be made through the CLMC and the three organisations will return to violence in tandem.
It is clear there is pressure on the loyalist military and political leadership to respond to the IRA bombs in London with attacks in Dublin. This comes from the most militant elements in their organisations.
The response of the loyalist leaders, however, is not clear.
Individual loyalist lenders are known to have invested a great deal of effort in assisting the peace process, including the opening of dialogue through go betweens with the Irish Government.
However, there have been signs recently of growing anger with Dublin. Late last week, the UVF rejected a claim by the former Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, that he had been in contact with them. They said he may have been in contact with Protestant clergy who had negotiated with them but said they had not spoken to the former Taoiseach and had no desire to do so.
By late last week, they also said they had decided to reject any contact with Mr Reynolds or the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Ahern. Visits to Dublin by loyalist delegations were also suspended.
There are now signs of growing antipathy towards the Government, with reports that negotiations between Dublin and the UVF through third party links are off.