ODDS are shortening on the appointment of a serving, but untarnished, EU commissioner to head a transitional Commission until the end of the year, diplomatic sources here predict.
Political and constitutional complications over the appointment are said to be inclining leaders away from trying to appoint a long-term president now. The widely respected Competition Commissioner, Mr Karel van Miert, is being seen as the most likely figure for the transition.
The issue is expected to be central to the discussions today between the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the German Chancellor and European Council President, Mr Gerhard Schroder, who is in Dublin this evening to complete his soundings of capitals ahead of next week's Berlin summit.
Mr Schroder said yesterday, following meetings in Spain and Portugal, that he was confident of sealing a deal on the EU budget at Berlin next week but that agreeing a new Commission President might take longer. Further discussions on Agenda 2000 yesterday here at ambassadorial level did not appear to be going anywhere, however, Irish diplomatic sources said. Proposals were tabled for further budget cuts, either by distinguishing sharply between Objective 1 member states or by cutting the allocation proposed for regions in transition.
Both proposals would compound the problems that Ireland has, a reality that will certainly be put to Mr Schroder by Mr Ahern today. oder's soundings as to press strongly for any one approach.
Although Dublin agrees the Commission should be replaced quickly, it is not keen either to see heads of government bounced into a long-term commitment on who will head the Commission. That may well incline Mr Ahern to opt for an interim internal candidate from the Commission.
The options faced by the member states on the Commission are complicated by national aspirations for and against particular candidates and two crucial constitutional factors - the European elections in June and the Treaty requirement that the term of a new five-year Commission must begin in 2000.
The Amsterdam Treaty, due to come into force on May 1st, allows MEPs to vote both on the choice of president and on the full team of Commissioners as a package. That means that, one way or another, Parliament gets to vote at least three, maybe four, times between now and the New Year on one or other aspect of the leadership of the Commission, a prospect that fills ambassadors here with jitters.
What happens if they offer the job to a big hitter like Mr Romano Prodi for five and a half years and he is approved by the current parliament but rejected by the new one? Indeed, would a major candidate want to submit himself to the indignity of such an endless series of votes?
And how easy will it be to pick such a big hitter in a hurry?
The options have narrowed largely to an argument about whether to go for an interim or long-term solution. In the former case two internal candidates are seen as front-runners for the presidency, the Belgian Competition Commissioner, Mr van Miert, and the British Trade Commissioner, Sir Leon Brittan.
If member states opt for a longer-term candidate the two still mentioned most are the former Italian Prime Minister, Mr Prodi, and the Spanish NATO Secretary General, Mr Javier Solana.
