THE US: The recall election is getting into high gear, writes Conor O'Clery, North America Editor, in Los Angeles.
Gray Davis is supposed to be extremely unpopular, so disliked that over a million Californians signed a petition demanding his recall. However, the Democratic Governor was treated like a film star when he turned up at the Ironworkers Local 433 picnic in El Monte, just outside Los Angeles, on Saturday.
Muscular tattooed men crowded around to get the Governor to sign their T-shirts and baseball caps, and women giggled as they posed for pictures with their babies.
For an hour he worked the crowd among the hot dog and melon stands in Whittier Narrows Park, listening courteously to everyone who grasped his hand. Often accused of being aloof and arrogant, he was a model of humility, in keeping with a new strategy that could be summarised as "You sent me the message, no need to send me packing".
"I thought nobody liked this guy," I said to ironworker James Miller. "Organised labour supports Davis," he replied. "Union members don't support Arnold Schwarzenegger because he is just a pawn for the Republicans."
When he addressed the crowd, Davis could not bring himself to mention by name his film star opponent who pumped iron rather than erected girders. He talked derisively about the "actor" who wanted to succeed him in the October 7th ballot.
"This actor says I am not going to ask for support from unions because you are 'special interests'," he said. "You are 'special' all right - to me." Amid the cheers a brawny man shouted: "He's a foreigner." The reference to Schwarzenegger's Austrian background drew a broad smile from the Governor.
"It comes down to this," concluded Davis. "Your car has two gears. D is for drive, and D is for Davis and Democrats. R is for reverse and Republicans. If the actor becomes governor you will go backwards."
Despite his widespread unpopularity, unions have come out behind Davis because of his support for workers' rights such as the eight-hour day. But with most Californians furious over the $38 billion deficit and Davis's mishandling of the state's energy crisis - not to mention a 30 per cent increase in college fees and a tripling of the car tax - the uncharismatic governor needs to make a broader appeal to the electorate.
This concern is behind a new strategy worked out by Davis and his advisers which emerged over the weekend. With the campaign getting into high gear, Davis is stepping up his arguments that the recall should be rejected by Democrats as an attempted Republican coup.
"The Republican Party will do anything it can to grab power and impose their conservative agenda on this state, this country," Davis told a handful of reporters in a hotel room at LA Airport, with leading presidential candidate Howard Dean by his side. "We're making a stand here in California. We're not going to tolerate another right-wing power grab."
Howard Dean said the fight was not about the governor's record ("just as well," muttered an aide) but about the undermining of democracy by the right wing of a Republican Party which had stolen the 2000 presidential election.
All nine Democratic candidates have opposed the recall and more high-profile support is on the way. As he left for another rally in Alhambra, Governor Davis told me that former president Bill Clinton will come to California in 10 days to campaign with him, and possibly Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton also.
With Senator Diane Feinstein, California's most respected Democrat, appearing day and night on local TV ads to oppose the recall as "bad for California", the tide could yet turn in favour of the embattled governor who had the support of only 35 per cent of registered voters in a Time/CNN poll when the campaign began last month. He still faces formidable odds in getting the 50 per cent needed to remain in office.
His deputy, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, broke Democratic ranks and put his name on the ballot paper along with 134 other hopefuls, presenting California with the option of recalling Davis and still having a Democratic governor.
Bustamante, who is leading the polls, is heavily courting the Latino vote and has got $2 million backing from Indian tribes whose gambling interests he protects.
His supporters like to retell one of the countless recall jokes going around: that "Bustamante once brought a little dope into his office - Gray Davis".
The Republican vote is meanwhile split among three strong candidates, Schwarzenegger, State Senator Tom McClintock and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth. The actor started off as hot favourite but his star fell over his failure to attend the first televised debate, raising charges that he does not have a full grasp of the issues.
The recall election has its farcical side, with porn star Mary Carey campaigning to make lap-dancing tax-deductible and Hustler publisher Larry Flynt campaigning for himself as "the smut peddler who cares". However, it has stirred debate about serious questions troubling Californians, from managing the colossal budget deficit to immigration and workers' compensation.
Schwarzenegger's close association with former Republican governor Pete Wilson, co-chairman of his campaign, has lost him support among the Latino community. Wilson won a second term as the chief backer of Proposition 187, the successful ballot initiative (later found unconstitutional) denying immigrants access to most state services. Yesterday Schwarzenegger was dumped as grand marshal of the Mexican Independence Day parade in east Los Angeles after Wilson disclosed that Schwarzenegger also supported Proposition 187.
"The Terminator" was already drawing criticism over his opposition to a bill giving an estimated two million illegal immigrants the right to have drivers' licences, signed into law on Saturday by Governor Davis in a blatant reversal of his own position. "I am pro-immigrant," said Schwarzenegger, "but we should not invite fraud or undermine law enforcement."
The actor has also tripped himself up over an initial pledge that he "was not taking money from anyone". Saying he mis-spoke, Schwarzenegger has since acknowledged accepting $2.5 million from developers, corporate executives, contractors, venture capitalists and other groups. They hope he will promote a more-business-friendly California by reducing workers' compensation rates. These have doubled employers' insurance in two years and driven some companies to relocate outside California.
Schwarzenegger modified his initial pledge. He said: "I will never take money from the special interests, from Indian gaming or from unions or anything like that." Then this weekend it was disclosed that last year he took $62,000 from Indian tribes and $530,000 from the California Teachers' Association for a ballot initiative he was promoting.
Other embarrassments for the actor include the unearthing of an interview he gave 25 years ago extolling the delights of sexual parties, leading to a demonstration on Saturday outside his Santa Monica office by Code Pink, a national women's anti-war group, which accused him of misogyny.
If the Hollywood star fails to remain a big hit with voters, and the national Democrats make an impression, Governor Davis may be the one who turns Schwarzenegger's catch-phrases against him, such as "Hasta la vista, baby", but few observers are willing yet to say "Game over".