Tutsi military now seeks end to civil war it cannot win

Fresh hopes have been raised for an end to the world's bloodiest conflict with the agreement by most of the parties to Burundi…

Fresh hopes have been raised for an end to the world's bloodiest conflict with the agreement by most of the parties to Burundi's civil war to take part in peace talks next month.

For the first time, President Pierre Buyoya, who seized power in a coup d'etat in 1996, has agreed to participate in the peace process mediated by the former Tanzanian leader, Mr Julius Nyerere.

The talks are scheduled to begin in Arusha, Tanzania, on June 15th.

Diplomatic sources here say that prospects for a resolution to the five-year civil war are brighter than for some time.

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Up to 200,000 people have died and one million made homeless in the conflict since 1993.

However, it is not certain that the main rebel grouping, the Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie (CNDD), will take part.

Some reports say it has split into two factions, one in favour of suing for peace and the other opposed.

As in the North, the drive for peace in Burundi has come from within, especially from military elements weary with conflict.

Even though the army, which is 98 per cent drawn from the minority Tutsi population, is winning the war against Hutu rebels, there is no sign of a military end to the conflict.

"The army has realised that even if they have control now in the field, they can never win the war. So they have to find another solution," says Mr Jean-Luc Siblot, the World Food Programme representative in Bur undi.

Mr Buyoya's push for peace is being interpreted as a sign of his growing strength within the army. He was previously president between 1988 and 1993, but made way for Mr Melchior Ndadaye, the country's first democratically elected Hutu president.

"The hardliners have never forgiven Buyoya for handing over power to a Hutu in 1993. Now they are saying he is selling out for a second time," says Mr Siblot. Nonetheless, he appears to have won the support of the majority within the army elite.

More than 85 per cent of Burundi's six million population is Hutu.

The war has forced most Tutsis into the cities and towns for safety, while the rebels continue to operate out of the hills and forests in this mountainous country.

However, the victory of Mr Laurent Kabila in Zaire's civil war last year, achieved with the aid of Rwandan Tutsis, has forced the Burundian rebels out of their traditional bases in Zaire (now Congo).

Since independence in the early 1960s, the Burundian army, judiciary and political system has been controlled by the Tutsi elite. When Mr Ndadaye became president, he was assassinated by Tutsi hardliners in October 1993, sparking the civil war.

His successor was killed the following year when the plane in which he and the Rwandan president were travelling was shot down in Rwanda.

After Mr Buyoya seized power in the bloodless coup in 1996, the neighbouring countries imposed an economic embargo on Burundi.

The Burundian Foreign Minister, Mr Luc Rukingama, argues that Mr Buyoya only seized power because the country was collapsing and because "the people were not educated enough to implement Western democracy".

"You cannot have a coup d'etat when there is no etat," he says. Sanctions have hit hard. Food prices doubled within a month. The Burundian currency has lost half its value.

The poor have born the brunt, as the cost of staples rocketed. Agricultural output has fallen, and seeds and fertiliser are scarce.

For a minority of business people, the sanctions have been a boon. Profiteering and smuggling is common, and Bujumbura's shops show no shortage of luxury goods.

And yet, as Mr Siblot points out, after five years of civil war and three years of embargo, the army is still being paid and the civil service is still working.

"Of what other country in this part of the world could you say that?" he says.