Tories may already have lost battle of Britain

"Many of the English are Unionists as they are Christians at ceremonial occasions and for polite conversation."

"Many of the English are Unionists as they are Christians at ceremonial occasions and for polite conversation."

TODAY is Europe Day. And it appears the European flag will be raised in Scotland after all.

Mr Michael Forsyth, the Scottish Secretary, caused a furore last week when he made it clear he would not help EU officials in their attempts to mark the event. For some, it marked a bizarre twist to the BSE crisis. But Tory Euro sceptics were delighted by the high profile ministerial protest against the ongoing European ban on British beef.

EU officials in Edinburgh had asked Mr Forsyth to help to ensure that Scottish civic buildings flew the Euro flag, and for assistance in distributing posters and literature in Scottish schools.

READ MORE

But Mr Forsyth - a possible contender for the Conservative leadership - was having none of it. "I have replied saying I do not think at the present time it would be appropriate for me to engage in this exercise, he declared. "It might be considered rather odd for the Secretary of State for Scotland to be promoting Europe Day at a time when one of our principal industries is being destroyed and put on the rack by this totally unjustified ban."

For some, perhaps, the impact of Mr Forsyth's protest was lessened by the admission by the Scottish Office that it had not flown the EU flag in the past and had not planned to today. But the minister's public statement had been made. And it was left to the enterprising Ken Collins, a Labour MEP, to "import" flags to be flown today in defiance of the Scottish Secretary.

"The best way to overcome the ban is to demonstrate that it is safe for people to eat [beef]," said Mr Collins. "Banning flags is an absurd response which simply brings the Scottish Office into contempt."

But Mr Forsyth will pay no heed to Mr Collins. For "the great British public" appears increasingly disposed to demonstrate its contempt for Europe - not to mention for ministers deemed inept, whether in defending the rights of British fishermen, the interests of British farmers, or what remains of Westminster's sovereign power.

Polls show overwhelming support for a referendum on Britain's future relationship with Europe. Mr John Major himself concedes that, were a popular vote taken now, the people would reject a single European currency. And given the growing conviction that Mr Tony Blair will win the general election, the European issue is shaping up to providing a major headache for a "New Labour" government.

On the face of it, things should prove a good deal more straight forward for a Tory party restored to opposition. Indeed, the accompanying conviction is that much of the current manoeuvring inside the Conservative Party is predicated on the assumption of defeat, and in preparation for the leadership contest which would follow.

Sure, some Euro enthusiasts may "split". But the "new intake" of Tory MPs will mark a further shift to the right. The theory, at least, is that the Conservatives, would then rally round a new leader and declare war on the "federalist" hordes. Come the day, Mr Forsyth will be there alongside Messrs Redwood and Portillo defending "the nation state".

But, ironically, he may have already lost his battle. For what, by then, will be the state of the British nation?

Mr Forsyth and his colleagues at that point would be fighting on two fronts - against the advancing "European superstate" and against Labour devolution proposals which they believe will facilitate a "Europe of the regions".

Mr Blair's solid commitment is to legislate for a Scottish parliament in the first year of a Labour government. Scottish nationhood will be asserted as self government takes root. And the award winning journalist Matthew Parris, for one, thinks the remaining Scots Tories will quickly be forced to sing a different tune: "It could prove a historic blunder for centre right in Scotland, and a gift to the left, if the anti socialist party there were to shackle its future to what would look like an English based party's ambition to re annex Scotland."

Mr Parris thinks the argument will move on, with Scots Tories forced to adapt to their new internal democracy. Which will leave, English Conservatives, he believes, confronting "the dismemberment of the Union" with a mixture of sadness and irritation.

The English will not, he argues, be bought off with "the risible sop of English "regional" assemblies: "The only question will be whether we accept England's knee capped status quo, or campaign for an all England assembly. This would represent an easy rallying cry, address a genuine grievance, and conveniently link. English patriotism with opposition to the Labour Party."

English patriotism. There's a new force to conjure with as we contemplate Britain's possible post Tory future. Andrew Neil, too, detects the slow stirring of English nationalism, on steady course for a collision with Scottish nationalism - fuelled by the unanswered "West Lothian question", over representation for Scots at Westminster, higher per capita spending north of the border, and the implicit complaint that the Union is holding Scotland from her destiny.

As Mr Neil observed last week, strident Scottish nationalism was never going to be "a one way street", and Britain looks like being the main casualty: "We are entering dark days for the Union." As they consider their options for June 10th and beyond, might the Ulster Unionists detect the opportunity, for once, to move ahead of the game?