The lines are already being drawn in Cork South West, writes Michael O'Regan
Mr Joe Walsh's decision to stand down from the Cabinet in next month's reshuffle has implications in his sprawling Cork South West constituency.
Fine Gael is lining up to regain a second seat, while Labour is hoping to win back a seat it held for decades.
While there is likely to be a strong battle for the second Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael nominations, Dunmanway-based Senator Michael McCarthy is already assured of the Labour nomination.
Labour held a seat in the constituency from 1923 until 1981, when it lost it to Fine Gael following the retirement of the late Michael Pat Murphy.
Mr McCarthy believes the seat is retrievable. "I think it will be a battle between ourselves and Fine Gael for the third seat. With the retirement of Joe Walsh, I do not see Fianna Fáil getting two seats," he said.
The loss of Labour's local county council seat was a blow to Mr McCarthy's chances, but he remains upbeat, given that a general election is not expected for another two or three years, and he has time to build a Dáil base.
Cork South West was once something of a jewel in the Fine Gael crown, returning two out of the three seats since the late Michael Pat Murphy stood down as the Labour TD. But that changed in the last general election, when Fianna Fáil won two seats for the first time since the constituency was made a three-seater in 1948.
Mr Denis O'Donovan, an outgoing senator from Bantry, joined Mr Walsh, from Clonakilty, in the Dáil. Bandon-based Mr Jim O'Keeffe retained his Fine Gael seat, but his party colleague, Mr P.J. Sheehan, from Goleen, was a casualty.
Mr O'Donovan, a solicitor, has impressed in the Dáil and is currently chairman of an Oireachtas committee examining the Judge Brian Curtin affair.
He seems sure of re-election, as does Mr O'Keeffe, the Fine Gael frontbench spokesman on justice and a former junior minister. Mr O'Keeffe is likely to achieve ministerial office if Fine Gael forms part of the next government.
A seat each for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seems assured. There is likely to be a battle royal for the third seat between those parties and Labour.
On the Fianna Fáil side, there is speculation that Clonakilty-based Mr Donal O'Rourke will join Mr O'Donovan on the ticket.
Mr O'Rourke is a close associate of the outgoing Minister for Agriculture, taking his county council seat some years ago and remaining a staunch supporter of Mr Walsh, who always jealously guarded his local patch.
A dark horse could be the Independent Skibbereen county councillor, Mr Christy O'Sullivan, who defected from Fianna Fáil after failing to get a party nomination in the 1999 local elections. In the last general election, he polled 3,609 first preferences, which was close to 10 per cent of the vote.
There is speculation that Fianna Fáil may attempt to heal the breach with Mr O'Sullivan.
Given that Fine Gael has nine out of the 15 county council seats in Cork South West, the competition to join Mr O'Keeffe on the ticket could be intense. It is understood, however, that the ambitions of Mr Sheehan, a TD from 1981 until the last election, remain undiminished. A colourful grassroots politician, he has spoken locally of his desire to return to the Dáil.
But party headquarters may view Mr Sheehan (71) as yesterday's man and seek a new candidate as Fine Gael attempts to be part of a post-election coalition.