Thirst for peace and willingness to compromise are indicated in Southern views

THERE is a thirst for peace among the people of this State, and a willingness to compromise to secure and maintain it, according…

THERE is a thirst for peace among the people of this State, and a willingness to compromise to secure and maintain it, according to the latest Irish Times/ Guardian opinion poll.

This result and the perception of a British anxiety to disengage from Northern Ireland may encourage the two governments to ignore entrenched political positions and persuade the Northern parties to move towards compromise.

The extent to which people in the Republic are prepared to modify their traditional aspirations is reflected by the enormous fall, from about 70 per cent 10 years ago to 30 per cent now, in the numbers who identified a united Ireland as their preferred political settlement.

The solution outlined by both governments in the Framework Document, which would provide Northern Ireland with links to the United Kingdom and to the Republic, was supported by 29 per cent. Some 22 per cent supported the creation of an independent Northern Ireland and 11 per cent opted for a purely internal settlement.

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Approval for a compromise solution involving Northern Ireland links with London and Dublin will encourage the Government to persevere with its three stranded approach to a settlement. It may also reassure unionists that the concepts of "consent" and of "parity of esteem" in the Downing Street Declaration are taking firm root in the Republic.

The reality of EU membership and the declining importance of the Border in economic and symbolic terms is reflected in only 7 per cent of those questioned feeling the Border is worth fighting over. Forty seven per cent felt the Border mattered but was not worth risking lives for, and 42 per cent stated it was not even worth arguing about.

Clear differences of opinion emerged between the three surveys, reflecting varying government and political positions.

Perhaps the most striking was the proportion of people in this State who believed the British government was responsible for the breakdown of the peace process. Some 46 per cent blamed the British government for the failure, with only 29 per cent pointing the finger at the IRA, in direct contrast to the responses in Britain and Northern Ireland.

This same attitude is reflected in a public willingness in the Republic to give Mr Gerry Adams the benefit of the doubt over whether he knew in advance that the IRA was planning to end the ceasefire. In the Republic 29 per cent believe the Sinn Fein president knew about it, while 56 per cent felt he had been "kept in the dark by the IRA."

Hope and belief combined to give the electorate confidence that the IRA ceasefire could be resuscitated. Only 18 per cent of those questioned believed the peace process was finished for good 56 per cent felt it was stalled and 23 per cent said it was continuing.

As immediate steps on the way forward, 46 per cent supported the setting of a date by the British government for all party talks and 32 per cent backed a resumption of the IRA ceasefire. Other options and support for them were unionists agreeing to talks without preconditions (12 per cent and an Irish Government peace plan (7 per cent).

There is little direct criticism of the Government's handling of the peace process, with only 6 per cent of respondents in this jurisdiction blaming it for the breakdown. And there is widespread support for the specific policies it has pursued with the British government.

An IRA ceasefire was seen as a prerequisite for Sinn Fein participation in all party talks by one third of those questioned the State, and 24 per cent believed arms decommissioning should take place in parallel with political negotiations.

Ten per cent of people in the Republic wanted all IRA weapons decommissioned in advance of talks, compared with 46 per cent support for this option among Protestants in Northern Ireland while 24 per cent maintained there should be no preconditions for Sinn Fein's participation in talks.

While there was huge support for a resumption of the ceasefire and an agreed political settlement, opinion fragmented over what strategies should be adopted in bringing this about and what the nature of a settlement should be.

The unwillingness of the bulk of unionists to contemplate anything other than an internal settlement in Northern Ireland will come as no surprise to either government, but the demands being made by the bulk of their respective electorates may sway their decisions.

There is little appetite south of the Border for Mr John Major's proposal for elections in Northern Ireland as a way to all party talks. More than two thirds of those questioned believed such an approach would either make little difference to the situation or worsen it, while only 23 per cent felt it might play an important part in helping to restore peace.

Mr John Hume's proposed all Ireland referendum, in which people would be asked if they renounced violence and endorsed all party talks, received support from all constituencies. Nearly two thirds of those surveyed in the Republic believed it could play an important part in helping to restore peace 26 per cent felt it would make little difference and only 5 per cent thought it would do harm.

The polls also found the balance of public opinion in favour of, or neutral towards, further involvement in the peace process by Senator George Mitchell, with 57 per cent of respondents in the South believing he could still play an important role.