In a move which could lead to a significant fall in college points for some courses, the numbers applying for third-level places have dropped significantly for the first time.
The unprecedented decline may also have serious implications for some third-level colleges, particularly a number of the 14 institutes of technology which are already struggling to fill places in some courses.
The decline has taken the Central Applications Office (CAO) by surprise. A spokesman told The Irish Times they were puzzled by the figures, which have emerged from applications made in the past month. He said the decline in the number of applicants - from 62,500 to 60,000 - could be very significant.
A drop in the numbers applying for third-level has been expected for many years because of the decline in the numbers taking the Leaving Cert exam. But this has been offset by the increase in mature students and those accessing third-level through the Post Leaving Cert (PLC) courses.
The figures should herald new opportunities for mature students to apply for college. It may also mean those who failed to secure a place last year could re-apply.
One third-level source said while the new figures would make little difference to high points courses such as medicine and law, they could have a dramatic impact on those courses which have struggled to fill places in recent courses.
These include computer and IT courses in some institutes of technology. As it is, many of the institutes now accept "all qualified applicants" for many courses provided they have the minimum entry requirement, usually five "passes" in the Leaving Cert exam.
The new CAO figures are a blow to the institutes of technology sector as the OECD begins a major review of the third-level sector later this month. The Government will be reluctant to invest greater resources in the institutes if it becomes clear that demand is beginning to decline sharply.
The OECD report is widely expected to recommend major rationalisation across the third-level sector.
The CAO figures could signal the start of a trend. By some estimates, the numbers taking the Leaving Cert will decline from a peak of over 60,000 five years ago to only 46,000 by 2007. One report for the Higher Education Authority has predicted a 35 per cent drop in Leaving Cert numbers up to 2012.
The latest figures also contradict a recent Department of Education projection of a 20 per cent increase in third-level numbers. This has now been revised downward.
Applications can still be made to the CAO for most third-level courses up to May 1st next.
The new CAO figures would appear to show that the Government's efforts to widen access - for both mature students and disadvantaged groups - have still to make a significant difference.
The Government has set a target of 15 per cent for adult participation in third-level by 2006. The Minister for Education, Mr Dempsey, has also sought to boost access to third-level to students from disadvantaged communities.
The new figures could also unleash much more intense competition between third-level colleges to attract and retain students on their courses.
