The week that saw the meltdown of the Bermuda Triangle

The count is still going on in South Tipperary as Drapier writes, but the message is already clear

The count is still going on in South Tipperary as Drapier writes, but the message is already clear. There will be no rush to the country after Bertie Ahern's worst by-election. John Bruton got a boost he needed and Seamus Healy will be around for quite some time. Drapier will leave the rest to the pundits and ponder instead the events of another remarkable week.

Wednesday was the longest day of the year and it felt like it, certainly if you were Mary Harney or any of her increasingly beleaguered Progressive Democrats. Tempers are always frayed at this time of year, but the by-election made things tetchier. On top of that Bertie Ahern's now-celebrated interview precipitated a chain of events which he certainly never expected.

The word most commonly used in Leinster House last Wednesday was meltdown. The comparisons most frequently drawn were with the last days of the Albert Reynolds administration as the Harry Whelehan affair sapped what was left of trust between the partners and drove them to a conclusion that seemed almost preordained.

And so it was this week. Every attempt at explanations only made matters worse. The opinion polls focused minds in all parties. John Bruton's poor rating underlined the real problems he has, but he can be grateful to the Government parties for shifting him so comprehensively out of the spotlight. And he can thank two people in particular, Bertie Ahern and Charlie McCreevy.

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Polls and the defection of Helen Keogh had seriously destabilised the PDs and left them vulnerable and angry. If ever there was a time for Fianna Fail to walk carefully and talk sensitively this was it. But Bertie did his usual evasive bit. It was not Machiavellian as some said; it was the self-protecting cuteness which is the outer layer of his Teflon shield and which usually works so well.

This time, however, it was seen for what it was. The sight of a grey-faced Bertie making his act of contrition during Wednesday's Order of Business while the PDs skulked outside was only the first of a series of humiliations.

Worse came later with Charlie McCreevy's Dail performance. Maybe he felt he had no option but to stonewall, but the combination of bluster and aggression did little to help his case and led him into uncharacteristic nastiness about "second chances" on the Opposition side.

His claim later that he was referring to Phil Hogan carried no credibility, especially since Phil Hogan, guilty of no more than a technical mishap, did not get a second chance and spent the lifetime of the Bruton government high on the back benches.

But it was the tone and style of McCreevy's performance that did most damage. Humble pie is not on Charlie's menu, but a little bit of it would go some way, especially since the spinning from Bertie's office is focusing on him as the main cause of the present difficulties.

Tempers improved somewhat at Thursday's Order of Business. But not for long. Sean Ardagh, who finds it impossible to pass a microphone without opening his mouth, stirred it up again, drawing a tart response from Liz O'Donnell, who saw it as Fianna Fail chancing its arm once again.

Then on Thursday Ursula Halligan brought us the Mark Kavanagh story about further missing monies, which leaves Bertie Ahern with further questions to answer.

There's only a week to go, and the Government will survive to the safety of the summer recess. And, if past experience means anything, the level of tension will drop, forces can be regrouped and maybe even spirits refreshed.

Drapier, however, sees little chance of spirits being refreshed this year. It's too late for that. Survival is now the name of the game. For the first time, close on half the electorate feel we need a general election.

In addition, the tribunals will continue well into the summer, and heaven knows what will fall out. The only certainty is that a great deal will, and little of it will bring comfort to the Government. But behind all the current excitement there is one question exercising minds. What went wrong? A few short months ago this Government was impregnable, riding high in the polls, luxuriating in the plaudits of the public and wallowing in its own self-congratulation. It was almost as if, not just today, but tomorrow, belonged to the Government.

When we look at what went wrong we see quickly that virtually all of the wounds were self-inflicted. Bizarre things like the cock-up of the biggest Budget surplus in history which still defies explanation. Asinine things like the exhortation of Charlie McCreevy to "party"; telling us to go out and spend as we've never spent before.

Pointless things like the jibes about "leftie pinkos" and "creeping jesuses"; jibes that connoted for many people an impatience with criticism and an arrogance towards those who disagreed. But most of all that incredible misjudgment which has left Hugh O'Flaherty impaled on a stake of public obloquy and the Government rudderless and panicky. In every one of these episodes there is a common denominator, one described by that sharpest of backbenchers, Louis J. Belton, as the Bermuda Triangle of Irish politics. By this he means the triangular relationship of Bertie Ahern, Mary Harney and Charlie McCreevy. Anything caught within that triangle perishes without trace.

It is extraordinary that three of the shrewdest people in politics have managed to get all of the above issues wrong, and spectacularly so. From the start they have been the elite group, the Cabinet within the Cabinet, the people who took the real decisions, with McCreevy in the central role, providing the bond of trust which kept the two party leaders on song. That relationship is now over.

Bertie's interview was the final nail in the coffin. But Drapier is certain Bertie did not set out to offend the PDs. Why should he? Drapier also believes he was foolish to do the interview at long distance from Portugal. Charles Haughey once said he liked to see the colour of the interviewer's eyes as he asked the questions, and certainly long-distance interviews by political leaders should carry a health warning. So if Bertie did not set out to offend the PDs, what was he at? The most obvious explanation is probably the correct one. Bertie was being himself, trying to cover all the angles, putting himself on the side of public opinion when a robust fighting defence of his own decision was what was most required. It might have been bruising, it might have meant a temporary loss of face but it certainly would not have led to the problems of this week.

He and his Government are now paying a high price for the interview.