IRELAND and Irish America can rest easy. Or can they? The US presidential election takes place on Tuesday week. Bill Clinton looks assured of victory, so US involvement in the peace process will continue, Ireland will still be high on the administration's foreign policy agenda, the president will continue to lend his name to fund-raising events, British policy will continue to be scrutinised and the US ambassador, Jean Kennedy Smith, will stay in the Phoenix Park and carry on networking for peace.
If Bob Dole wins, a question mark hangs over all of the above and Mrs Kennedy Smith, like all political appointments, will be the first casualty. But things may not be as bad for Ireland as might once have been the case under a Republican administration in Washington. Since Ronald Reagan put the pressure on Margaret Thatcher they have been developing an Irish agenda but they are split. The traditionalists, of whom Doe is one, continue to be influenced by Britain which has been their great stragetically in NATO and should not be upset. The other, larger group would support what Clinton has been doing.
Clinton has a good record on Ireland. Dole has little or none; his recent criticism of Gerry Adams in the White House failed dismally when it was realised that a) he was looking desperately for somewhere to attack the president's foreign policy and b) he had already said that when he was president, Adams could enter by the front door.
Nobody expects Dole to win. Yet some worry that the time and money he is now spending on California could, at a very outside chance, turn the tide.
What most are wondering is what Clinton will bring in on his coat-tails - will his win be big enough to end Republican domination of the Senate and the House of Representatives?
The betting is that he will change the House but not the Senate. And will a big win mean George Mitchell is taken from us and installed as Secretary of State?