GUATEMALA: A tense mood has gripped Guatemala in the run up to this Sunday's presidential vote as a three-day ban on all productive activity, decreed by President Alfonso Portillo last week, appears certain to lead to social unrest.
The blanket ban on productive labour, beginning on Saturday, would force taxis and buses off the streets, shut down all restaurants and hotels and prevent newspapers and television stations from delivering news on the progress of the vote count.
"If thinking can be counted as a productive activity," wrote one newspaper columnist, "then that's outlawed too." The Guatemalan business council ran full page ads in the main newspapers yesterday, declaring their intention to open for business and defy the presidential decree. The country's Supreme Court declared the work ban unconstitutional as it will interfere with the logistics required to organise this weekend's ballot. However President Portillo resisted demands to repeal the order, agreeing only to allow hospitals and specified "essential services" to remain open.
The work ban has been widely condemned as another ploy by the ruling Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG) to boost its fragile election hopes as their candidate, former dictator Mr Efrain Rios Montt, trails in third place, well behind the two main contenders.
Mr Oscar Berger, a former mayor of Guatemala City, is the favourite to win the presidential vote, leading the Grand National Alliance, (GANA) a coalition of right-wing parties supported by the business elite. Mr Berger is unlikely to gain the 50 per cent plus one vote required to win the election in the first round as his main rival, Mr Alvaro Colom, has gained ground in recent weeks. Mr Colom, running with the National Union of Hope Party (UNE), has an almost identical political platform to Mr Berger. A second round ballot scheduled for December 28th now appears necessary to determine the final result.
Retired General Rios Montt seized power in 1982 and launched a scorched earth campaign against indigenous villages deemed soft on left-wing guerrillas. An estimated 60,000 men, women and children were massacred as 447 villages were wiped off the map.
The former dictator has since reinvented himself as a democrat, winning a seat in parliament where he has adopted a populist strategy, distributing food packages and roofing materials to the majority poor. The PAC veterans now form the backbone of the Rios Montt campaign as his party has promised to deliver a full pension to their 450,000 members, despite evidence that patrol members killed civilians and settled personal scores under the pretext of the war on subversion.
Mr Rios Montt's support has climbed in recent polls and analysts believe that many voters are reluctant to admit they intend to cast a vote for the former general who pledges a firm hand to combat crime and poverty.
The election campaign has turned nasty in recent weeks as PAC veterans kidnapped journalists to press home their demands and Rios Montt supporters ran riot in Guatemala City when their candidate faced a ban on running for office due to his dictatorial past. The mob held 500 people hostage inside a tower for nine hours, smashed windows, burned cars and chased a reporter who later died of a heart attack.
A fortnight ago Ms Rigoberta Menchu, Guatemala's Nobel Peace Prizewinner, was spat upon and pushed by the General's supporters when she filed a legal complaint against the constitutional court's decision to ratify the general's candidacy. Police officers stood back and ignored the disturbance, which occurred inside court offices.
However the General has also faced angry crowds on the campaign trail, with one meeting cut short by a hail of stones delivered by relatives of indigenous people killed during the former general's reign of terror in the 1980s.
"Social unrest and street violence are the principal tools of the Rios Montt campaign," commented Mr Miguel Jimenez, a human right's activist, "the more insecure the population, the more likely they will turn to the tough man who can restore calm".