LET Drapier be blunt. Nobody in here knows who will win the election. And Thursday's Irish Times poll didn't help us much in coming to a definite conclusion either.
Drapier knows people are putting a brave face on it - at least for public consumption. But he spent much of last week talking to some of the wise of the parties on the possible electoral outcome and from all he got the same message: it's simply too close to call. All will hinge on 20 or so marginal seats which could go either way. If there is a mood swing in any direction then the result could be decisive. But on present evidence and with no mood swing in sight, nobody knows. It's that simple. As Drapier has long said, the campaign is all.
The one imponderable is our friend the floating voter. Once the campaign proper starts on Thursday these voters may focus their minds on whether they want John Bruton or Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach. When that happens and when we get down to the real issues then there may be a perceptible trend. But Drapier is inclined to go along with Jack Jones of MRBI: the "don't knows" will probably distribute all over the place rather than in one direction. But only time will tell. And by then it may be too late for some.
This week's poll caused a great stir in here. Initially the smiles were on Opposition faces but when the dust had settled and the deep analysis began, nobody was happy. Fine Gael people were shaken by the 4 per cent drop but took heart from the fact that the vote had not gone to Fianna Fail or the PDs. Some interpreted that as an indication of disapproval of recent performance rather than a total withdrawal of support.
Certainly the past two weeks have been bad for Fine Gael. Drapier heard more than one backbencher murmur that the poll may now knock some of the complacency out of a couple of ministers and refocus their minds on the real issue - the election.
Given the timing of the poll, Drapier expected the Fine Gael vote to be down. What truly astounded him was the failure of Fianna Fail and the PDs to budge from their present positions. Fianna Fail's core vote is down. It's at one of the lowest ever preelection figures and given Fianna Fail's propensity (Drapier puts it no more strongly) to drift downwards once the campaign starts there is ground for concern. Drapier sees plenty of underlying uneasiness and little certainty among Fianna Fail TDs. As one Fianna Fail colleague said: "We're holding, but not gaining - and holding from a very low base. I don't like it."
The PDs were not happy either. Traditionally they were the main beneficiaries when things went badly for the bigger parties, but not this time, apparently.
We will have more polls this weekend. And more after that. Drapier suspects they will give us all headaches as we move up and down in what promises to be a nasty election. But as he said last week and repeats to his colleagues this week: cool it and let us get down to the issues.
Drapier finds a great contradiction in Irish politics at present. In public, on the airwaves, in the Dail and even this week in our august Seanad, the mood is nasty and personal. In private, Drapier has never seen more genuine friendship across party boundaries, so much personal trust between colleagues and so much agreement on so many important issues. It may well be that the committee system has helped break down traditional barriers. But one way or another most of us behave decently and honourably, indeed normally. And yet little of this translates into public performance or public perception.
Drapier has a message for all his colleagues this weekend, including Mary Harney, John Bruton, Bertie Ahern and Dick Spring. This sort of nastiness is getting us nowhere. Unworthy things are being said all round and the only victim is the body politic and the party system. Some of the media may love it but the public is not impressed. Indeed if personal nastiness was the key to electoral success then there are one or two colleagues in here who should be heading the poll every time but instead usually crawl into the last seat.
In Drapier's view the punters are more concerned with who will best secure their future, give them good quiet government, continue the prosperity of recent years and, most of all, provide jobs and houses for their kids. And there is a constituency too for those who try to look after the marginalised and even for those who can bring some hope to Northern Ireland.
That's Drapier's message this weekend and he is serious about it. The election will not be won by throwing dirt or impugning the integrity of opponents. So let's get on with the real business.
Oh yes, the election. As if you could walk a yard in here this past week without running into it. We are all at the end of our tether waiting but now that we know or think we know that John Bruton will be calling on Her Excellency on Thursday the general feeling is one of apprehensive relief.
THE Irish Times poll did raise for a moment or two - especially among a few punters who had put money on a late election - the possibility of postponement. But not seriously and not for long. That die is cast and has been well cast this while back.
As usual there were those who said Bruton should have gone in April or gone in May. But then, timing is usually best judged in hindsight. Good timing is when you win, bad timing when it goes awry. And there were those in here with long memories who told us solemnly that few Taoisigh had managed to get their electoral timing right. One even went back so far as to point out that John A. Costello didn't have to go when he did in 1957 and needlessly lost the election for that reason.
Others pointed to Jack Lynch in 1973, Liam Cosgrave in 1977, Charlie Haughey in 1989 and Albert Reynolds in 1992 as Taoisigh who got the timing wrong. But this time there is a difference. John Bruton had only two choices. Now or November. And now it is.
This time next week, Drapier will be on the hustings. Psychologically and mentally he has been there for some time and has even managed to get in a couple of days canvassing. He is fit and in good heart and he will be reporting back to you over the coming weeks on the real story.