Ulster Unionist Lord Kilclooney, formerly John Taylor, and Sinn Féin's Mr Martin McGuinness were in qualified agreement yesterday: after November 26th either Mr Gerry Adams or Mr Martin McGuinness could be in position to don the crown of first minister of the executive and assembly.
Lord Kilclooney made his point as a scare tactic to wake up Ulster Unionists and to try to trip up the DUP. Mr McGuinness made his as a scare tactic to wake up any slumbering republicans and, of course, to annoy the hell out of the SDLP.
While UUP leader Mr David Trimble was keeping faith with the agreement and being heckled on the Shankill for his trouble Lord Kilclooney was warning that the unionist apathy factor could hand the Stormont leadership to republicans.
"I have little doubt that Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest of the pro-Irish parties," he said. "Indeed there is a chance that Sinn Féin could emerge as the party, not only greater than the SDLP, but greater than the UUP if unionists fail to vote in the east of the province." Lord Kilclooney was hammering home the message that Mr Trimble and other pro-agreement unionists are repeating and repeating: that if pro-agreement unionists stay at home then they will only have themselves to blame if the grounded political process remains parked in the hangar after polling day.
Over in west Belfast at the Sinn Féin campaign launch, Mr McGuinness was confirming Lord Kilclooney's analysis. "We believe that the story of this election will be the return of Sinn Féin as the largest nationalist party," he said.
His vision was of republicans on the march. "Sinn Féin is on the verge of an historic advance, and that will be seen across the North in Belfast, North and South Antrim, East Derry, Upper Bann, Lagan Valley and South Down, as well as in republican heartlands west of the Bann and in Newry and Armagh.
"The pro-agreement electorate recognises that Sinn Féin are the most effective negotiators, and for that reason want to see Sinn Féin returned with a first or deputy first minister." Such comments, Lord Kilclooney hopes, will galvanise moderate middle class unionists to exercise their franchise in favour of Mr Trimble and his Yes candidates.
The DUP like Sinn Féin feels it too is on a roll. It believes it has the anti-agreement unionist vote mopped up and has slightly softened its position to try to tempt those wavering unionists, undecided between plumping for hardline unionists or the UUP, to switch to the DUP.
Mr McGuinness however was predicting that the DUP would not emerge as unionist top dog. "There is no doubt that the DUP are going to increase their representation, but I don't believe they will increase their representation in a fashion that can destroy the peace process. That's why I am so confident going into this election that in its aftermath there is a very real probability that the pro-agreement parties can get this show back on the road again."
Sinn Féin, to overtake the SDLP, must get transfers as well as first preferences. Now that it is growing in respectability any tendency for moderate voters, particularly SDLP voters, to ignore the party is decreasing.
Mr McGuinness was confident that not only would SDLP voters transfer to Sinn Féin but all pro-agreement parties would do the same - which means he expects votes from Ulster Unionists.
In turn Mr McGuinness gave his imprimatur for republicans to transfer to Ulster Unionists. Vote Sinn Féin "down the slate", he exhorted, and then "continue to support all the pro-agreement parties".
