CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: ANTRIM SOUTH:THIS IS a one-to-watch constituency. It is unionist and will remain so, but to view it in such terms is utterly to miss the point.
The tensions within unionism are being played out here in a manner unequalled elsewhere and the outcome of this battle will say much about future trends.
The result could be determined not by unionists at all, but by the tactical votes of nationalists.
This seat used to be held by former Ulster Unionist leader James Molyneaux with a massive majority of 38,000. His party no longer has that level of power and Molyneaux’s latest successor, Sir Reg Empey, has a major battle on his hands.
At stake is his standing as party leader, his place in the Stormont Executive and, on a wider scale, the future of the Ulster Unionist-Conservative link-up.
Sir Reg admits he is taking a massive risk by hopping 10 miles up the road from his East Belfast base to confront sitting DUP MP William McCrea.
He insists the Tory project is a long-term one and will take a political generation to realise its full potential.
Others wonder if he has that measure of time to show the fruits of the revived relations with the British Conservatives.
This Westminster seat has changed hands between the DUP and Ulster Unionists at every election in the past decade, with the local electorate among the most unpredictable anywhere in Northern Ireland.
Adding yet more uncertainty to the mix is the campaign being waged by the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Vociferously opposed to Sinn Féin in government at Stormont, candidate Mel Lucas – a former DUP man – is clearly targeting William McCrea and his party.
Accusing them of a Trimble-style sellout by agreeing to share power with Martin McGuinness at Stormont, he could well cost the DUP MP significant support in this the DUP’s most vulnerable seat.
To do so would be to the possible advantage of Sir Reg, and the TUV would draw little comfort from that.
One Assembly member said that antipathy among some rival unionists in this part of Antrim is “visceral”.
It is a constituency of political blow-ins. William McCrea used to represent neighbouring Mid Ulster before Martin McGuinness took that seat.
Sir Reg currently represents East Belfast in the Assembly and he has pledged to quit both that seat and his place around the Executive table if he makes it to Westminster.
Sinn Féin successfully moved Mitchel McLaughlin to South Antrim from Foyle where he ran against former SDLP leader Mark Durkan in Derry.
It was a gamble that paid off handsomely for Sinn Féin and it now has a reliable foothold in a constituency where the SDLP has suffered from internal personal rivalries.
Ulster Unionists calculate up to 2,000 nationalists could well vote tactically for Sir Reg to oust William McCrea.