THE HEAD of MI5 has warned of an upsurge in dissident republican terrorism in Northern Ireland and a likely "new alignment" of threats to the UK in the wake of the global economic crisis.
Jonathan Evans, the director-general of the security service, combined these warnings yesterday with reassurance for the British public that the threat posed by extremists linked to or inspired by al-Qaeda has been diminished by 86 successful prosecutions brought by the authorities in the past two years.
"It has had a chilling effect on the enthusiasm of the networks and they have been keeping their heads down," Mr Evans said. One crucial measure of that security service success, he confirmed, was that there had been less "late-stage attack planning", particularly over the past 18 months.
In an unprecedented interview with a number of British newspapers, however, the MI5 chief also underlined that scores of British Muslims were still travelling to terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia. Admitting too that MI5 does not have "anything approaching comprehensive coverage" of all potential threats, Mr Evans said there was "enough intelligence" to show a continuing "intent to mount an attack" in the UK, adding that it "could happen at any stage".
MI5 assumed the lead responsibility for "national security" issues in Northern Ireland last year, and Mr Evans warned people against the assumption that it was "all over" in terms of the terror threat.
He placed determined efforts to kill a police officer in the context of "a real upswing" in terrorist planning by groups opposed to the power-sharing settlement. "Most people think it's all over in Northern Ireland. Unfortunately it is not," he said. "If you look at the last nine months there has been a real upswing in terrorist planning and attempted attacks by dissident republican groups."
The MI5 chief said his service believed the dissidents were seeking to destabilise the peace process by returning to sectarian murder. He also acknowledged that the 2012 Olympics were a potential target, though most likely for extremists already known to MI5.
While the focus of the security service in the next few years would remain on international terrorism, al-Qaeda and its associates, Mr Evans said they were also looking at the global economic crisis. The international recession could prove a "watershed moment", he suggested, with new threats arising from the decline in British, American and European economic power.
"Where there have been watershed moments, there have often been national security implications from that - a new alignment," he said.
"We have to maintain flexibility and respond to threats. The world will not stay the same." The general truth of that was underlined by Mr Evans's decision to grant the first newspaper interview by a serving director-general in MI5's 100-year history.
He also took the opportunity to confirm that the agency has for years deliberately targeted female recruits - with nearly half its current 3,000 officers (47 per cent) being women, while 8 per cent are from ethnic minorities.