A SUCCESSION battle over the top post in the world’s arms control watchdog could affect attempts to persuade Iran to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure
The struggle could also shape nuclear nonproliferation efforts for the next four years.
Abdul Samad Minty, a South African, and Yukiya Amano of Japan are the front-runners to take over as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after Mohamed ElBaradei’s term expires this year.
The agency’s leader will be decided during a vote after a closed-door meeting of the 35-member board in Vienna on March 26th and 27th.
By most accounts the two officials could not be more different in their personalities and their attitudes toward arms control and atomic energy, which has been growing in popularity as part of what scientists call the “nuclear renaissance”.
The debate over the two goes to the heart of the struggle between nuclear haves and have-nots, between those in the West who define arms control as preventing emerging nations from obtaining nuclear bombs, and those in the south and east who want to highlight the obligations of atomic-weapons states to disarm.
Mr Minty, a charismatic diplomat known for his outspokenness, has emerged as the favourite of developing countries. Most are sympathetic to Iran’s nuclear aspirations and suspicious of the West’s attempts to deny them nuclear technology while keeping their own weapons stockpiles.
Mr Amano, a low-key technocrat, has emerged as the West’s favoured candidate for his commitment to restrict the agency’s duties to narrow technical issues and forgo the type of opinionated diplomatic mediating role practiced by Mr ElBaradei and his predecessor, Hans Blix.
“A great director general is one who artfully navigates the politics of the situation to permit the IAEA to fulfil its technical mission,” said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms-control expert at the New America Foundation. “I think has lost that sense of balance. His speeches now cover topics far outside the mandate of the IAEA, from missile defence to the Middle East peace process.”
The IAEA was set up to encourage safe nuclear technology and later became the means for verifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which grants signatories access to nuclear technology in exchange for forgoing weapons and submitting to inspections. But in recent years, the IAEA has taken on the role of global troubleshooter, advocating policies for resolving disputes over nuclear technology.
“The political role that the agency has taken on has not served the agency very well,” said Valerie Lincy, an analyst at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. “It was meant to sound the alarm when there is a violation. But they’ve taken on somewhat of a political role that I don’t think has necessarily helped.”
Mr Minty insists that as a representative of a country that has acquired nuclear technology, he has the savvy to forge consensus in major disputes.
“You have to be impartial and let the facts . . . speak for themselves,” he told a group of reporters in Vienna. The director general has to have some political understanding because every issue, he added.
Mr Amano defines the agency more narrowly as a body to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote the safe use of nuclear energy.
“The mandate has been decided by statute,” he said in a brief interview. “The activities of the director general are under the control of the board of governors.”
Under Mr ElBaradei, who along with the agency was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005, the IAEA became one of the world’s most high-profile organisations. Among leaders of the many international organisations founded after the second World War, its chief is arguably second in stature only to the UN secretary-general.
“The IAEA is not just the watchdog of compliance,” said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center at Harvard University. “As much as any other actor in the system, it is a guardian of the global nuclear order”.
With cloudy prospects for either candidate, some speculate that a dark horse might emerge during the upcoming meetings. – ( LA Times-Washington Postservice)