Speculation about a possible political breakthrough in the North continues to build ahead of Senator George Mitchell's return to Belfast on Monday, despite seemingly contradictory indications yesterday from the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein.
Mr Mitchell is expected to begin a fresh round of meetings with the parties at Stormont on Monday afternoon, and to produce definitive proposals designed to break the devolution/decommissioning impasse, possibly as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.
An assessment by Gen John de Chastelain, the chairman of the Independent Decommissioning Commission - believed to be based on direct consultations with the paramilitaries - is expected to be key to the success or failure of the review, now entering its 10th week.
Unionist politicians have previously demanded "certainty of achievement" of decommissioning, as the price for proceeding with the creation of the powersharing executive. However, there is an increasing focus on whether the general, in his report, can provide what Mr Peter Mandelson, the Northern Ireland Secretary, recently defined as "certainty of intention" by the paramilitary groups to meet the decommissioning requirements of the Belfast Agreement.
If the IRA was willing to vouchsafe a statement of intent to the general, belief is growing that the Ulster Unionists could then agree a sequencing arrangement which would permit the prior creation of the executive. Close observers say any statement by the general expressing confidence or belief that the paramilitaries intended to decommission - in the context of the implementation of the agreement as a whole - would, in effect, make the International Commission and the US administration (as represented by Senator Mitchell) joint guarantors of an overall settlement.
However, some unionist sources have made it clear they regard "certainty of intention" and "certainty of achievement" as effectively one and the same, and that some delivery of IRA "product" would have to follow quickly the appointment of ministers.
In July, Gen de Chastelain said: "My own assessment is that to retain confidence in the process, actual decommissioning would have to begin within a few weeks of the start of the decommissioning process." And at an earlier stage in the current review, a close ally of Mr David Trimble said he would be expecting product "within days rather than weeks" of setting up the executive.
In the sequencing process canvassed then, the start of the decommissioning process would have been marked by the appointment of an IRA interlocutor to deal directly with the commission.
And, while stopping short of predicting a successful outcome, one well-placed source yesterday confirmed "a real attempt at a deal" was ongoing, based on a development of the position arrived at in July, when Mr Tony Blair pronounced a "seismic shift" in republican attitudes on decommissioning.
Other talks insiders remain sceptical as to whether the Provisionals would be prepared to give a commitment to the general that they have so far denied Sinn Fein. After the failure of the July talks, Sinn Fein spokesmen questioned the validity and practicality of the May 2000 target date for decommissioning, given the ongoing failure to establish the institutions prescribed by the agreement. And British sources continue to emphasise that republicans are likely to move only if satisfied that Mr Trimble can deliver his party.
Moreover, there is an obvious ongoing tension between Ulster Unionist demands for indicative timetables, and the generally held view that any decommissioning by republicans would have to be presented as a voluntary action. However, one insider last night recalled that the Hillsborough proposals at Easter - accepted by the UUP and rejected by Sinn Fein - had "contrived to combine a voluntary act with an obligation".
Speaking in the US yesterday Mr Trimble said: "If the paramilitaries are unable to move at the moment, then we are prepared to be patient to see if there are ways of helping them," and it would be wrong to think failure now would end the process.
Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness, said: "We do not have unlimited time to end the crisis in the peace process. This is the most critical phase of negotiations we have collectively faced since the peace process took root. It must not fail."