State facing 10,000 primary school place shortfall

We’re going to live longer than we had thought previously; more of us are going to work past the age of 65; and there could be a shortage of primary school places for as many as 10,000 children a year.

These are just some of the findings in a new report from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Population and Labour Force Projections, 2016-2046.

The projections from the CSO are based on the 2011 census results, and according to Deirdre Cullen, senior statistician at the CSO, the report is "not an attempt to predict the future, but rather presents how the population will evolve under different scenarios".

One of the more stark findings in the report is the substantial increase projected in the number of primary school aged children. This cohort is expected to jump by between 17 and 20 per cent, or between 87,900 and 100,300 by 2021, before falling back slightly in 2026.

A rise is also forecast in the number of secondary school aged children, or 13-18 years olds. This population is expected to increase by between 105,700 and 116,800 by 2026, with the fastest increases expected between 2021 and 2026. This represents an increase of between 31 and 34 per cent on 2011.

Fertility

Following a peak in the birth rate in 2009 at 75,554, Ireland currently has the highest birth rate in Europe at 2.1, and the CSO predicts it will likely remain at the top of the European league tables, in the range of 1.8 to 2.1 until 2046.

Aging population

According to the CSO projections, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over is expected to increase significantly over the coming years, jumping from the 2011 level of 532,000 to between 850,000 and 860,700 by 2026. By 2046, some 1.4 million people will fall into this age category

The increase is even more dramatic in the “very old” category, with the numbers aged 80 and over expected to rise from 128,000 in 2011 to between 484,000 and 470,000 in 2046.

Mortality

Both males and females are likely to live longer in the coming decades according to the study, with life expectancy for men expected to rise from 77.9 to 85.1 and from 82.7 to 88.5 for women by 2046.

Labour force

It will take another eight years for participation rates of 25-44 year old males to recover to 2006 rates, while participation rates among older males are expected to increase, particularly those aged 60 and over, with 20 per cent of over-65s predicted to be in employment by 2026, up from 13.8 per cent at present.

For single females, a recovery in participation is projected across all age groups, although it is expected that the spike in married women working will level off.

Migration

Under the most optimistic scenario, which factors in a return to economic growth, positive net migration will return in 2016, rising slowly thereafter before settling at an annual rate of more than 30,000 by 2021 (70,000 immigrants/30,000 emigrants), and remaining at this level thereafter.

Under a less optimistic scenarios, migration will only turn positive by 2018 before reaching an annual flow of more than 10,000 by 2012, while taking a more negative approach would mean that migration would remain negative throughout the life-time of the projections, settling at -5,000 in 2021 and remaining at that level thereafter.