The Dail may have been in recess for a month but it is only this week that the Government took its holidays. The next Cabinet meeting is on September 6th. After the political upheavals of last month, many wonder how long the FF/PD coalition can remain in power.
The Dail returns on October 3rd but because the Government's popularity has taken such a dive some insiders hope the Taoiseach will reshuffle his front bench and present a shiny new image. It is unlikely to happen; Bertie Ahern never likes upsetting people. The first goal, then, is to make it through to the December budget. Despite Charlie McCreevy warning colleagues this week that the next budget will not be an election one, that current spending will be pegged at 4 per cent and that inflation must be watched, his measures are expected to be aimed at appeasing the more socially disadvantaged.
If the budget is a success, and last year's mistakes are not repeated, the Government can survive until autumn 2001. Leaving it later is tempting fate. An election has to be held by June 2002.
The wild card in this scenario is what might emerge on sleaze. There are five public enquiries running - Flood on planning, Moriarty on payments to politicians, Lindsay on haemophilia, Laffoy on child abuse and Murphy on Judge O'Buachalla - as well as 10 private inquiries instigated by Tanaiste Mary Harney on matters ranging from Ansbacher to IIB.
Meanwhile the political parties across the spectrum, from the PDs to the Shinners, are making shapes but keeping all options open. As always in politics, anyone will do a deal with anyone if the numbers are right. The plan is to form a coalition based on the lowest possible majority - 83 deputies from two or three parties and, possibly, a few independents. Any combination is possible except a FF/FG coalition. So come the next general election, whenever that might be, and barring a huge tribunal-fuelled upset, either Bertie Ahern or John Bruton will be Taoiseach. After that it's all to play for.