ANALYSIS: Presidential campaigns offer political parties an opportunity to energise bases and build brands
WHILE PRESIDENTIAL elections are not about politics, the almost constant media coverage of contenders and campaigns exerts an irresistible force on our political preferences. Today's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll reveals for the first time how the 2011 presidential election is shaping voter attitudes towards political parties and their leaders.
Our latest poll shows a surge in support for Sinn Féin, up eight points to 18 per cent. Sinn Féin is now the second most popular party in the Republic, behind only Fine Gael which has dropped three points (to 35 per cent) since our July poll.
Labour has also given ground to Sinn Féin (down one point to 17 per cent), as too has Fianna Fáil (down two points to 16 per cent) and Independents/others (down two points to 12 per cent).
For political parties, a presidential campaign is an opportunity to energise the base and build the brand. Thus far, only Sinn Féin appears to be enjoying a boost in party support from participation in the race.
There are no indications that either Fine Gael or Labour have enhanced their appeal since campaigning began. An analysis of candidate popularity by party allegiance, detailed in yesterday’s Irish Times, provided some insight into why.
It showed the Fine Gael candidate, Gay Mitchell, with minimal support outside the Fine Gael base, which suggests his candidacy is not acting as a recruitment vehicle for the party. Support for Michael D Higgins was shown to be more broadly based but most of his “away” support is coming from Fine Gael.
In almost 30 years of Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI polls, never has Sinn Féin reached 18 per cent support and never has the party been the most popular party in Ireland bar one. Sinn Féin has managed to effectively convert their presidential election profile into political party support through the efficiency of ideology. Consider the following analysis – among likely voters in both a general and a presidential election, 9 per cent would vote Sinn Féin in both elections, compared to just 6 per cent for Fine Gael and only 4 per cent for Labour.
Ideologies engender strong loyalty and commitment from a narrow base of supporters. On the flip side, ideologies tend not to have popular appeal which will likely prevent Sinn Féin from winning the presidential election where transfers will prove decisive.
Only time will tell if Sinn Féin can maintain this momentum. The party enjoyed a bump in support following Pearse Doherty’s byelection success in late 2010 (jumping from 8 per cent to 15 per cent), but within the space of only a few months had given back most of these gains.
The entry of Martin McGuinness into the race has both galvanised the party faithful and attracted new voters to Sinn Féin. There is evidence that Sinn Féin has already begun to appeal to a broader demographic. Whereas historically it has performed strongest among 18-24-year-olds, in recent polls Sinn Féin has been drawing significant support from the 25-49-year-old age cohort.
The call for further austerity coming from Fine Gael and Labour may be ringing hollow with some of these voters, many with growing families who are already struggling to pay mortgages and send their children to school.
Somewhat overshadowed by a strong Sinn Féin showing in today’s poll is the five-point jump in satisfaction (up to 36 per cent) for their party leader, Gerry Adams.
If we factor out the Sinn Féin surge, not much has changed in the relative positionings of the two Government parties, consistent with a relatively uneventful political summer. Since our July poll, support for both Fine Gael and Labour has declined marginally.
Yet these losses may prove temporary if the Sinn Féin vote retreats when the dust has settled. Supporting this analysis are reasonably robust satisfaction ratings for the Government and Government party leaders.
Satisfaction with the Government is down just one point to 36 per cent, while Enda Kenny is still seen to be the best-performing party leader (down two points to 51 per cent), with Eamon Gilmore the next best performer (down two points to 42 per cent).
Based on today’s poll, Fine Gael and Labour may welcome a return to normal politics in three weeks’ time. Then again, they may look back on the campaign as a welcome distraction: a global economic storm is raging and a harsh budget is looming, to which the media and the public have yet to turn their full attention.
For a long time, Fianna Fáil was in two minds about entering a candidate. At this stage there is no clear evidence that not contesting has damaged the party.
Fianna Fáil is two points lower in today’s poll (down to 16 per cent), but all of the larger parties and political groupings have lost some share to Sinn Féin so it does not make sense to attribute these lost points mainly to the lack of a presidential candidate.
Although Fianna Fáil appears not to have lost support as a result of not running a candidate, the party may have missed a valuable opportunity to invigorate both the party and the brand after the massive losses incurred in the general election.
Our poll data shows party allegiance to be a useful predictor of candidate preference in a presidential election, but not the only predictor – only 39 per cent of Labour voters intend to support Michael D Higgins and just 21 per cent of Fine Gael voters are behind Gay Mitchell.
On this basis one could argue that an appealing Fianna Fáil candidate could have attracted a wider following than expected.
Micheál Martin’s handling of the presidential decision-making process has not been judged kindly by the voting public. His personal satisfaction rating is down to 28 per cent, a drop of nine points.
The Green Party has kept a relatively low profile of late and this is reflected in a static poll performance.
At 2 per cent, support for the party is unchanged. And party leader Eamon Ryan has not yet made an impression. His satisfaction rating remains at 16 per cent which, based on historic trends, would not be regarded as robust for an opposition party leader.
While some of the latest poll findings are dramatic and unprecedented, presidential elections are a very rare fixture on the political calendar.
What matters is the extent to which allegiances remain intact after the tide of presidential election coverage has gone out.