Middle East: The Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, and his Palestinian counterpart Mr Mahmoud Abbas will meet tomorrow, beginning 10 days of intense diplomacy viewed as crucial to bolstering the road map to peace. The plan has become increasingly bogged down, writes Peter Hirschberg
During this period, both leaders will also hold separate talks with President Bush in Washington.
Mr Abbas plans to reiterate his demand in the meeting with Mr Sharon that Israel lift its travel ban on Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, who is confined to Ramallah. Mr Abbas has faced criticism at home for his decision to travel to the US while Mr Arafat remains grounded.
Mr Abbas will also push for the release of Palestinian prisoners at his meeting with the Israeli leader.
He knows that the freeing of a significant number of prisoners, who are viewed as the spearhead of the national struggle by Palestinians, will win him points he desperately needs to boost his flagging domestic status.
Israel had said it would release some 350 prisoners - there are more than 6,000 - excluding members of the radical Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements. But Israeli officials, aware that the non-release of prisoners from the Islamic groups could jeopardise the ceasefire declared on June 29th and weaken Mr Abbas, signalled yesterday the prisoners scheduled for release would include up to 60 Hamas and Jihad members. None of them, they said, would be militants who had been involved in deadly attacks on Israelis.
"There's nothing definite," said Mr Zalman Shoval, an adviser to Mr Sharon, in reference to the inclusion of Hamas and Jihad prisoners in the group to be freed. He said he expected a decision to be made before the prime minister travels to Washington on July 29th. The Israeli leader is aware that releasing prisoners will earn him credit ahead of his meeting with Mr Bush.
While violence has tapered significantly since the truce went into effect, the momentum generated by the peace summit orchestrated by Mr Bush has also waned, with both sides demanding the other take the next step in implementing the road map.
In his meeting with the US president, Mr Abbas will not only demand release of prisoners, but also that Israel accelerate the uprooting of illegal settlement outposts, remove more army roadblocks in the West Bank that make travel a nightmare for Palestinians, and withdraw from more Palestinian cities.
In recent weeks, Israel has redeployed its forces in Gaza and withdrawn from Bethlehem. Mr Abbas's visit to the White House will be his first since becoming prime minister earlier this year, and it is being viewed by the Israelis and Americans as important in establishing his standing in relation to Mr Arafat, whom Mr Bush and Mr Sharon want to sideline.
But the hopes in Jerusalem and Washington that pictures of Mr Bush entertaining Mr Abbas will weaken Mr Arafat, may be tinged with some wishful thinking. Mr Abbas, who became prime minister as a result of intense international pressure on Mr Arafat to accede to the creation of the position, is still perceived as something of a US-imposed appointment by many Palestinians.
A recent showdown between the two men - ostensibly over Mr Abbas's negotiating tactics with Israel - was understood by many as a power play by Mr Arafat, meant to illustrate that his prime minister might be the darling of the US administration and palatable to the Israelis, but he was still ultimately calling the shots. Mr Arafat, though, was forced to agree to Mr Abbas's US trip under strong pressure, including from the Egyptians.
In his meeting with Mr Bush, the Israeli prime minister is expected to insist that the Palestinian Authority begin dismantling armed groups, as the road map requires. Mr Sharon will argue that Mr Abbas and his government have been given a period of grace to organise, but that they must now act.
He will also want a US guarantee that the truce declared by the various Palestinian factions will not be a substitute for action by the Palestinian Authority against armed groups.
The time for diplomatic niceties appears to be over. But as much as Mr Abbas and Mr Sharon will be under scrutiny, so too will Mr Bush's ability to persuade the two sides to continue implementing the peace plan.