The larger unionist parties appear satisfied with the status quo on Belfast City Council. If the DUP ever really expected to benefit from a UUP "meltdown", it seems to have decided against trying to capitalise on it.
Dr Sydney Elliott, of Queen's University, says there is no evidence of an aggressive strategy from the anti-agreement party, which holds seven council seats with an incumbent Lord Mayor, Mr Sammy Wilson.
"In six out of nine of the wards there is no change in the number of candidates nominated by the DUP compared to 1997. In two wards they have reduced and in one they are not running at all. If they were expecting a swing they would be over-nominating."
The unionist block of 25 seats, which also includes the PUP and UDP, is one short of an overall majority on the 51seat council. The Alliance party, with six seats, holds the balance of power between unionists and the nationalist block of 20 seats. Ulster Unionist Mr Chris McGimpsey accepts his party would be content with holding its 13 seats in the PR poll. "I don't see us making any gains but I don't see us making any losses either."
It is predicted that Alliance will be "squeezed", with Sinn Fein and the SDLP both chasing its seats. The Northern Ireland Women's Coalition will also contest three wards for the first time and hopes to draw support from Alliance voters.
However, Dr David Alderdice, former lord mayor of Belfast, forecasts Alliance will retain the pivotal position it secured in 1997. "I think we will be in a position to direct operations as we have been trying to do in a responsible fashion for the last four years," he said.
The Balmoral ward will be the scene of one battle between the SDLP and Sinn Fein, with the SDLP defending two seats there. Sinn Fein hopes to erode the vote of its nationalist rival and Alliance to secure a victory in this middle-class area with a growing Catholic population.
Sinn Fein, currently with 13 seats, is aiming to become the largest party on the council and provide a lord mayor for the first time. It held the post of deputy lord mayor in 1999.
According to Sinn Fein candidate Mr Sean Hayes, demographic changes will enable him secure the party its first seat in Pottinger, east Belfast, most probably at the expense of Alliance.
Sinn Fein also aims to take an extra seat in the Oldpark ward, north Belfast. Three unionist candidates, Mr Billy Hutchinson, PUP, Mr Fred Proctor, UUP and Mr Nelson McCausland of the DUP, are vying for two traditionally unionist seats, which could split the unionist vote.
The SDLP, currently with seven seats, also believes it can secure victories against Sinn Fein. The party is targeting a seat in Castle, north Belfast, which it lost to republicans in 1997. The SDLP also aims to take a second seat in Laganbank and the Upper Falls ward, a one-time SDLP stronghold now dominated by Sinn Fein. Mr Alex Attwood, of the SDLP, stressed his party would benefit from transfers from Sinn Fein but Sinn Fein would not benefit to the same extent from its transfers.
However, he also accepted gains and losses by each party could cancel each other out, with the nationalist block remaining at its current strength.
Among the smaller parties, the Progressive Unionist Party is running extra candidates in the Court Ward, incorporating the Shankill Road, where Mr Hugh Smyth is a popular figure, and Pottinger, where Mr David Ervine holds a seat. The Ulster Democratic Party is expected to have no presence on the next council, after its candidate in Court was forced to run as an independent because the party's logo and name were not registered with the electoral commission. Mr Frank McCoubrey, the current UDP deputy lord mayor, later indicated he would stay an independent even when this election is over. A second UDP incumbent is standing down from Balmoral.