IRAQ: Saddam Hussein has told his regional officials to expect urban warfare if American forces invade, according to information received by US intelligence.
The Iraqi plan would avoid desert fighting of the kind that proved disastrous in the 1991 war over Kuwait, but would maximise casualties among US troops and Iraqi civilians.
The claims that the Iraqi leader gave a strategy briefing to officials, reported yesterday in the Los Angeles Times, originated from Iraqi defectors and opposition groups who passed them on to the US.
Although the briefing cannot be confirmed, its reported content tallies with the views of independent analysts about probable Iraqi strategy.
Iraq has no significant air power, and its 2,000-plus battle tanks would be vulnerable to US air strikes. But in terms of manpower it has more than 400,000 active troops and perhaps a similar number in reserve.
Concentrating its troops in the cities could force the US to attack major centres of population.
That would increase the risk of civilian casualties, for which world opinion would be more likely to blame the Americans than Saddam.
For the regime, it would also mean having large numbers of troops on hand to deal with any civilian insurrection.
Ultimately, Iraq believes this strategy would draw the US into street-level combat, resulting in far greater American casualties than occurred in other recent wars.
"It's perfectly understandable, perfectly logical for Iraq to concentrate on the heartlands," said Mr Daniel Neep, of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
It was also "entirely likely" that Iraq would deliberately use its civilians as human shields for specific sites that might be targeted by the US, he said.
Iraq adopted this tactic with foreigners in the run-up to the 1991 war and later, during confrontations over weapons inspectors, brought thousands of Iraqi civilians into presidential palaces to protect them from air strikes.
Analysts disagree as to how many of the Iraqi forces could be expected to flee or surrender once they come under attack.
- (Guardian Service)