THE leader of the hardline Spirit of Drumcree faction in the Orange Order, Mr Joel Patton, said last night that he believed the RUC would ban tomorrow's controversial parade through Portadown, Co Armagh.
The Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mowlam, also signalled that this was the intended course of action when she called on Portadown Orangemen to listen to "voices of reason".
Her failure to make a similar appeal to nationalists on Portadown's Garvaghy Road was denounced by the deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, Mr Peter Robinson,
Supporting the Orangemen, Mr Robinson said: "Their decision to exercise their traditions and rights will be given wholehearted support by the unionist community throughout Northern Ireland."
Increased security in Portadown has lent support to the theory that the march was about to be halted or re-routed. "During the week I believed the parade would go ahead," Mr Patton told reporters. But now he believed there was "a change to stop the parade on Sunday". Ireland Office sources have made it clear that last year's build-up of Orange Order supporters would not be allowed this time. A build-up of nationalists was never a serious prospect because their personal safety could be at risk as they travelled to the Garvaghy Road.
It is understood Dr Mowlam is considering a package of measures to soften the blow to Orangemen if the RUC bans or re-routes the march. These are said to involve changing public order legislation in a manner which would be "advantageous" from a unionist point of view.
She is believed to be considering extending the role of the Parades Commission to have regard to cultural issues and this is said to have implications for the activities of the Gaelic Athletic Association in Northern Ireland.
But she insisted last night the decision on the march had not been made. "Let me say very clearly that no decision has yet been taken," Dr Mowlam told reporters on the steps of Stormont Castle. "We are continuing our efforts to find an accommodation that both communities can live with."
Pointing out that many in the Orange Order had shown some flexibility, she appealed to Portadown members: "For the good of everyone and for the sake of peace in the next few weeks I urge those in the Portadown Orange to listen to those voices of reason."
Dr Mowlam refused to take questions and returned to her office immediately. The implication of her statement was that if the Portadown Orangemen insisted on exercising their right to march, they would be acting unreasonably.
Therefore, observers believed, the only logical decision would be to refuse to permit the march to proceed through the nationalist section of Portadown's Garvaghy Road. The decision is due to be announced late this afternoon.
The outlawed Loyalist Volunteer Force was reported to have issued a death threat to the leader of the Garvaghy Road residents, Mr Breandan Mac Cionnaith. A hoax bomb in the area was also attributed to the LVF. Hundreds of residents lined the road last night to protest against the proposed march and there was panic-buying of food supplies, gas camping cookers and candles in preparation for a possible siege. Holiday caravans were seen leaving Portadown in convoy as hundreds of people in the town sought to avoid the coming showdown.
Conciliation efforts continued, however, and the so-called McCartney Plan seemed to have gained a new lease of life. This Was the proposal by Mr Robert McCartney, MP, that the parade would be declared lawful but the Orangemen would waive their right to march on this occasion. Unionist sources believed the possibility of Portadown Orangemen adopting this position was remote.
Dr Mowlam held a series of meetings during the day with Orange leaders, politicians including Lord Molyneaux and security advisers. A solution along the lines of the McCartney Plan was backed by the Grand Master of the Orange Order, Mr Robert Saulters, but he said later the proposal was unacceptable to Portadown Orangemen, blaming recent remarks on the issue by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.
A decision to ban or re-route the march will avoid the possibility of a rift in Anglo-Irish relations. The tough public stance taken by Mr Ahern and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Burke has been echoed by nationalists in Northern Ireland.