THE TWO TONNE rogue Chinese spy satellite expected to crash to Earth tomorrow will probably fall harmlessly in the southern oceans, British experts said yesterday.
But they added there was still one in 300 chance of the probe, which was launched two and a half years ago, hitting a location in Britain or Ireland at a speed of around 400 m.p.h. relatively intact and with potentially devastating consequences.
Slightly greater or lesser odds also existed for it to hit one of dozens of other countries over half the Earth's surface.
The satellite failed 10 days after it was launched on October 8th, 1993, as part of a Chinese military reconnaissance programme, aviation experts say.
It now is in an uncontrollable oblong orbit that has dipped to an altitude of 144 km.
Officers at Britain's nuclear attack early warning centre, RAF Fylingdales, are monitoring the erratic progress of the 2,040 kg space probe, which is about the size of a small car.
The possibility of it crashing on Britain prompted the Ministry of Defence to put the nuclear attack early warning centre on alert.
Flt Lieut Fritz Muse said: "Tuesday is becoming more and more solid as the day when it will come down, most likely in the southern oceans. Everyone is guessing at around midday - give or take eight hours."
But he added that the exact point of impact could not be calculated until five minutes before it actually landed.
The satellite's orbit takes it over Britain four times a day for about five minutes on each occasion.
Flt Lieut Muse said there was a range of countries - embracing half the Earth - which the satellite passed over and on which it could theoretically come down.
But the southern oceans were the most likely area, taking into account the lowest point of its current orbit.
Travelling at the speed of a bullet, the satellite would leave a 60 ft wide crater if it hit land.
The Home Office is understood to have urged local authorities to prepare "emergency measures" in case it hits Britain.
Insurers have promised to pay up if it falls on someone's home. The Association of British Insurers said its members would also cover the cost of damaged cars, except those with only third party cover.