Report warns incidence of cancer to almost double in next 14 years

The incidence of cancer is projected to almost double here in the next 14 years, a report from the National Cancer Registry (NCR) warns.

While the total number of new cancers is predicted to increase by 90 per cent by 2020, some of the largest increases are expected in cancer of the prostate (a 275 per cent increase), kidney (160 per cent for women and 200 per cent for men) and melanoma (130 per cent increase in women and 170 per cent in men).

"An increase will occur in almost all cancer types, mostly as a result of the population ageing but also as a result of an increase in underlying incidence rates for most cancers," the report says.

NCR director Dr Harry Comber said his staff were "surprised" at how high the increases would be. He said increases were almost unavoidable given the fact that the population is ageing.

However, the Health Services Executive (HSE) must be proactive in addressing these increases, he added. The growing numbers of people diagnosed with cancers will place a significant extra burden on health services and this must be taken into account when planning for staffing and capital investment.

The Government must also take a "much harder look at research into cancer prevention". A proportion of the increases would be in kidney cancer - linked to rising obesity, and melanoma skin cancer, linked to increased sun exposure, especially in childhood.

Overall the report projects a 97 per cent increase in cancers in men and 83 per cent in women. If invasive cancers only are considered the increases will be even higher - overall an increase of 109 per cent, with larger increases for men (117 per cent) than for women (101 per cent). Most cancers occur in the over-65s, "so any change in the number of this population is an important determinant of cancer incidence".

The report points to projected demographic changes which will see the number of females in the State aged over 65 years increase from 235,000 in 1995 to 521,000 in 2030, and the number of males from 176,000 to 454,000 in the same period.

It means the percentage of females who are over 65 will increase from 13 per cent to 19 per cent in the same period, and the percentage of males over 65 from 11 per cent to 16 per cent.

So, while there were 11,394 cancers among women in the 1998 to 2002 period, some 20,819 cancers are anticipated among women in 2020. There were 10,625 men diagnosed with cancer in the 1998-2002 period, and 20,924 are anticipated among men in 2020.

The biggest projected increases for women are cancers of the liver, kidney, breast, lung, skin (melanoma) and gall bladder. For men the greatest increases are projected to be in cancers of the liver, prostate, kidney, melanoma and testis. "Only cancer of the head and neck in men is predicted to fall in numbers," the report notes. There have also been significant decreases since 1994 in cancer of the stomach for both sexes and for cancers of the colon and bladder in men. Action to reduce cancer will have only a limited impact "as much of the anticipated increase in numbers will be caused by the growing number of older people in the population".