The referendum tide in Northern Ireland is running in favour of the No campaign at the moment. The appearances by high-profile prisoners at the Sinn Fein ardfheis and this week's loyalist rally in Belfast's Ulster Hall have probably sealed any prospect that a majority of unionists would vote for the Belfast Agreement.
One senior UUP member who worked long hours in the talks, but could not accept the deal in the end, said recent television footage made it look as if "the luna tics have taken over the asylum".
The failure to massage unionist public opinion could prove costly, not just in the referendum vote but afterwards in the assembly elections. The conventional wisdom is still that the referendum will come up with a Yes majority, thereby ensuring that the assembly is at least set up, but if there is a large body of anti-agreement opinion in that body, what then?
"There will be chaos if the referendum isn't won well," said one observer. The "star" of the campaign has proven to be Mr Robert McCartney, leader of the UK Unionist Party, and he can be expected to apply his considerable legal skills and eye for detail to efforts to frustrate the workings of the North-South ministerial council and to prevent Sinn Fein members securing positions as ministers on the assembly executive.
We can expect to see a campaign of parliamentary guerrilla warfare from the time the assembly holds its first meeting, expected in early July. If they emasculate the North-South bodies, the anti-agreement unionists will probably bring about the demise of the assembly itself. Some of them favour a devolved assembly for Northern Ireland but will be prepared to sacrifice that if it means halting what they see as moves towards Irish unity.
After the referendum, the next major battleground will be the nomination process for Ulster Unionist candidates in the elections. The twist in the saga for Mr Trimble is that if the UUP were to run on a strictly pro-agreement ticket, it would probably win fewer seats than if a "broad church" approach were taken.
One source said it could make the difference between 39 and 30 UUP seats and that it might be wiser for the Glengall Street machine to take a tolerant view of the candidate's opinions when guiding its constituency associations and then hope to change those views once the assembly got off the ground. Either way, the selection process will be very rapid, given that the elections are looming on June 25th.
One senior unionist cautioned that some unionist grassroots might vote No in the referendum but still support pro-agreement candidates in the elections. Another intriguing possibility is that nationalist, particularly SDLP, voters might give their lower transfers to pro-agreement candidates from the UUP.
The assembly will have a "shadow" existence until the legislation for establishing it goes through Westminster, allowing for a formal transfer of powers, probably early in the new year.
The term "shadow", however, should not be confused with "dormant" because there is a programme of work laid out for the assembly in the agreement. A shadow executive must be formed so that meetings of the North-South ministerial council can be held for the purpose of choosing areas for cross-Border co-operation. The deadline for making these choices is October 31st.
While the anti-agreement unionists may not be able to prevent the North-South council being set up, they could try to inhibit and frustrate its workings on the floor of the assembly.
One way might be to limit the powers of ministers taking part in the council, another could be to require constant reporting-back to the assembly by participating ministers, yet another might be to attempt to squeeze the money-supply to the council and the implementation bodies.
The agreement is a cleverly conceived document and its drafters clearly envisaged the possibility that a large number of Assembly members could be dedicated to destroying the Good Friday pact - but if there is insufficient consensus, it will bring down the entire structure sooner or later.
The position of the Alliance Party could prove crucial. All assembly members are required to declare themselves unionist, nationalist or other. Since it will be adopting the designation "other" (or "non-aligned"), Alliance could hold the balance of power under the weighted majority voting system set out in the agreement.
This would allow key decisions to be made with the support of only 40 per cent of unionist members, provided the motion had the support of at least 40 per cent of nationalists and 60 per cent of the total number of members from all three designations who were present and voting.
Key decisions include electing the chair of the assembly, the first and deputy first ministers, standing orders and budget allocations. However, a minority of 30 members can trigger such decisions in other cases by a "petition of concern". For example, a petition could focus on whether a Sinn Fein minister was entitled to be a member of the Executive, perhaps in the light of the latest action attributed to republican paramilitaries.
No one is predicting exactly how the political battle will be fought in the assembly, but there is no doubt that the war for the soul of unionism and the future of Northern Ireland is only beginning.