AN election could be nearly a year away but poll fever has broken out in Leinster House following Fine Gael's decision to change its ardfheis from April to September next year. Does this mean an October election? Not necessarily. FG felt that with Fianna Fail, Labour and Democratic Left all holding their conferences next spring, having theirs then too would create a near unstoppable momentum for a June poll. FG wants to keep its options open. With party celebrations in the spring and the ardfheis in the autumn, it can chose its time.
The Taoiseach, John Bruton, is understood to favour October and has discussed this with his coalition partners. His opponents believe that since he is unlikely to be returned to power, he may as well hang on as long as possible. Dick Spring and Proinsias de Rossa are not as opposed, possibly for this reason, to an autumn date: nor are the backbenchers of all three parties. Naturally they fear going to the wire could trip them all up, they have no cars to lose and they have little stomach for conducting the longest campaign on record.
FF sources say that election manifestos are already being prepared in at least three Government departments and this would support their leader Bertie Ahern's long-held belief that the Government will cut and run soon after the Budget in January. Meanwhile, the Progressive Democrats are going ahead with their conference in Bunratty in two weeks' time. Clare has been chosen as the venue, to boost candidate Mary Mannion - just as Waterford was chosen four years ago to help, successfully, Martin Cullen.
There are several motions on preelection pacts and the Young PDs want each Irish citizen to have a vote for the direct election of a Taoiseach. This, naturally, would facilitate the immediate elevation of leader Mary Harney.