Prodi looks to Europe but is still keeping his eye on the political ball at home

The idea emerged on the night of the medium-long knives which marked the collapse of the relatively long-lived centre-left executive…

The idea emerged on the night of the medium-long knives which marked the collapse of the relatively long-lived centre-left executive last October of the Prime Minister, Romano Prodi. It seemed to offer a graceful exit from a far- from-graceful political debacle.

Just as they pulled their knives out of his back, Mr Prodi's one- time allies rallied round in a chorus of Prodi for Europe, indicating that the professor from Bologna should be promoted as Italy's candidate to succeed Luxembourg's Jacques Santer as president of the European Commission.

Within days of taking office, Mr Prodi's successor, Mr Massimo D'Alema of the former communist Democratic Left, took up the theme (with perhaps a little too much alacrity), suggesting that Mr Prodi would represent a very "strong candidacy". Widely respected Europe-wide for his key role in the drastic over-haul of the Italian economy so that Italy could qualify for the start-up of the euro, Mr Prodi (59) is a convinced pro-EU activist.

Not only did his successful 1996 general election campaign make the single currency a priority but, while in office, he staked his political survival on Italy's inclusion in the first round of the euro. Mr Prodi's successful period in office, his previous experience as president of the state holding giant IRI, and his network of international acquaintances appear to make him a formidable candidate. So formidable, it seems, that he heads the current ante-post list in Brussels. Given that other potential heavyweight candidates, such as former Spanish prime minister Felipe Gonzalez, have fallen by the wayside, Mr Prodi looks already past the post, bar the shouting.

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However, although Mr Prodi has expressed his respect for the "importance" of the Commission presidency, he has also likened the campaign on his behalf to a "Judas kiss". Put simply, Mr Prodi continues to have serious political ambitions within Italy. This is demonstrated by his attempts to re-float the "Olive" coalition which held together his government.

It is also reflected by his recent decision to run his own grouping at this summer's European elections, a coalition which also comprises a movement of city mayors and the movement led by the former anti-corruption investigating magistrate, Antonio Di Pietro.

Put even more simply, Mr Prodi will not go away. Indeed, as he himself said last month, it would be "distasteful" for Italy and Italians if his candidacy were to be interpreted along the lines of a "consolation prize to keep me quiet in Italy". Nor is Mr Prodi necessarily being paranoid.

It is hardly reassuring that one of the first to lobby for him in Commission circles was former President Francesco Cossiga, the man whose Union of Democrats party played a key role in putting Mr Prodi out of office and Mr D'Alema in.

In an interview in yesterday's Corriere Della Sera, Mr Santer suggested his successor had to have a "prime minister's pedigree". Was this a reference to the strength of the Prodi candidacy? Not necessarily, since Italy has at least two candidates - Mr Prodi and Giuliano Amato, a former socialist prime minister.

All bets are off.