POST-ARAFAT: the succession

Middle East: When Mr Yasser Arafat was flown to Paris, Palestinian leadership took the appropriate steps to effect a smooth succession. The Speaker of the Legislative Council, Mr Ruhi Fatouh, assumed presidential powers for 60 days until a poll is held.

Mr Arafat's deputy in the Palestine Liberation Organisation and Fateh, Mr Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen), took charge of these bodies. The Prime Minister, Mr Ahmad Korei, assumed chairmanship of the National Security Council.

Dr Hanan Ashrawi, legislator and former spokeswoman, has said that elections could be held on time. "The legal committee has finished drafting the new election law so only it needs be passed by the Council. There is no legal vacuum. There is a vacuum of charismatic leadership in terms of an individual. We must now rely on institutions and the rule of law. But Israel is preventing us from holding elections."

Mr Hatem Abdel Qader, of the Legislative Council representing Jerusalem, agreed: "After Arafat we will have institutions, democracy, civil participation and elections. No one can assume the presidency. If Israel creates a good atmosphere by lifting the siege, removing check points...we can hold elections within 30 days. Israel must help us...by allowing people to vote."

But Israel is not the only problem. Mr Qader said: "There are two generations of leaders, the old and the young. Of the older politicians, only Abu Ala [ Korei] and Abu Mazen [ Abbas] can stand. In the younger generation there is only Marwan Barghouti," the Fateh leader who is imprisoned in Israel. Mr Qader cited a poll which gave Mr Barghouti most votes followed by the Hamas leader Dr Mahmud Zoharl. "Abu Mazen got only 2 per cent," he said. "Israel must let Marwan out of prison. Marwan is the most important leader in Fateh, he supports peace, and can ensure the existence of the National Authority. The US and Europe must put pressure on Israel to allow the elections and to free Marwan."

For now, several informants say that Hamas is likely to abide by a pledge to refrain from attacks on Israel. Elements breaking the unilateral ceasefire would be severely condemned by the Palestinian public which wants a peaceful transition and a resumption of negotiations leading to the emergence of a Palestinian state.