IF sheer slog work and dedication count in the coming election, the Green Party should be in line to make a surprise gain in Carlow/Kilkenny.
Its candidate, Mary White, has walked highroad and byroad in the two counties, knocking on doors and shaking hands. I started last October, walking 15 to 20 miles a day," the environmental activist says.
She estimates she has covered over 2,500 miles and met over half the electorate personally. She says there is a mood for change. "Rural decline of small towns and villages is the major concern: Garda stations only open a few hours in the day, post offices under threat. There's a great anger that village life is dying, and old people feel very vulnerable".
There is indeed a possibility of change in this big fiveseater. But also confident of capitalising on it is the PD candidate, Jim Gibbons, son of a former minister for agriculture.
He is showing well in local polls and hopes to shade it over outgoing Carl ow Fine Gael Deputy John Browne, in a fight for the fifth seat. Mr Browne's seat is probably the most insecure of the five sitting TDs because of the redrawing of the constituencies.
Some 2,600 Carlow votes from the Hacketstown area have been ceded to Wicklow, many of them thought to support Browne.
This could be critical in a tight count, and the third FF candidate, the Mayor of Kilkenny, John McGuinness also has his eye on Deputy Browne's seat. A third FF seat in the constituency would be a major triumph and a boost for their national prospects.
Transfers will, of course, decide the outcome and a major factor will be the extent to which the Fianna Fail voters comply with the party's strategic plan. This sees the party's three candidates, poll topping Deputy Liam Aylward seeking No 1 votes in south Kilkenny; Mayor McGuinness canvassing the city and northern area, and Deputy M. J. Nolan enjoying an unfettered run in Co Carlow.
Fine Gael is running only two candidates - the sitting TDs, Browne and Phil Hogan - in its bid to retain its two seats.
Labour's Deputy Seamus Pattison is sure of holding his seat, and a second Labour candidate, Senator Jim Townsend, of Carlow, is hopefully targeting the last seat.
The electorate of just over 84,000 is roughly divided into 55,000 in Co Kilkenny and 29,000 in Co Carlow. Up to 9,000 of these are new voters, and their decisions could swing the outcome.
Agricultural issues will be a primary influence on the voters and, in a shrinking industrial base, jobs are also a core concern.
But in the final analysis, it will probably be the perceived profiles and credibility of the party leaders that will determine which way this constituency swings.